The Ukrainian steppe. There is no end to its breadth. It is an endless plain covered with thick feather grass, a rich tapestry of colorful fields. Welcome to the southern part of Ukraine. Farmers here usually begin their work in early March. Last year, however, was a challenge for them. The Russian invasion of the country has brought chaos to the Ukrainian agriculture industry, with mines and unexploded ordinance littering farmers’ fields. Regional council deputy Serhiy Khlan says that 50,000 hectares of land in the Kherson region have been cleared of mines, but another 450,000 remain dangerous. That’s an area the size of Slovakia.
Hundreds of brave men are cultivating land for sowing. Agriculture remains a key sector in Ukraine’s economy, which has already suffered greatly because of the closure of the Black Sea ports and the devastation of industrial cities in the East. Ukrainian farmers have been killed by enemy mines in the fields. Ukrainian farmers save crops from fires after devastating Russian shelling, while ports have been targeted by missiles. Despite the mayhem, the Western border and the railway, which the Ukrainian economy strongly relies on, happened to be blocked by farmers from the neighboring state of Poland.
In mid-2023, relations between Ukraine and Poland began to deteriorate. Poland became a refuge for Ukrainians fleeing the war in the first days of Russia’s invasion, while a conflict of interest began to grow. Due to the evident presence of Russian involvement, the situation only worsened. But let’s take it in order.
Ukrainian Farmers Navigate Market Challenges
Before the full-scale invasion, little attention was paid to the origin and destination of grain, and how critical it was for global food security. For years, Ukraine has been a major supplier of grain to Europe, significantly contributing to the state budget and earning the title of Europe’s breadbasket. The reliance on Ukrainian grain is particularly notable in regions like Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. According to the World Food Programme, countries such as Lebanon, Djibouti, Pakistan, Somalia, Mauritania, and Eritrea fulfill over half of their wheat requirements from Ukraine.
Ukrainian grain is a crucial resource in alleviating hunger in developing nations. In 2022, Russia’s blockade of over 20 million tonnes of grain in Ukraine, threatening widespread hunger and greater problems in Ukraine’s economy.
With an abundance of unsold grain from previous years and an upcoming harvest, Ukrainian farmers flooded the domestic market, while the global prices skyrocketed. Despite
challenges, the Black Sea grain deal, initiated in July 2022, enabled the export of 33 million tons by July. However, Russian inspections caused a 66% decrease in May. Despite gains such as stabilizing grain prices at $800 per tonne from a high of $1,360, Russia terminated the deal a year later.
To increase the capacity for trade at Ukraine’s land border, the European Commission launched “Solidarity Corridors” in 2022. War is expensive – Ukraine needs to fight for its existence while maintaining functionality from within.
Thus, all duties and quotas on Ukrainian goods were canceled. Ukrainian entrepreneurs and farmers resumed trading their goods. Ukraine exported nearly 33 million tonnes of grain and food to 45 countries, with Poland serving as a key transit corridor. However, Poland’s infrastructure couldn’t efficiently handle the influx, leading to delays. In July 2022, over 16,000 wagons, including many with grain, were stuck at the Polish-Ukrainian border due to customs issues. Poland envisioned itself as a hub for Ukrainian agricultural trade, but primarily for transit to other regions. Yet, some Ukrainian grain remained in Poland, allegedly saturating the local market. The Grain and Feed Chamber, a Polish professional organization, called for urgent government action in April 2023, emphasizing infrastructural and administrative improvements. Additionally, Polish farmers withheld grain, encouraged by promises of higher prices by Deputy Prime Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, despite global grain market prices stabilizing.
The imposters of the story
As protests by farmers began in early 2023, the main concern was the drop in prices of agricultural products, especially grain. Witnessing grain prices in Poland tumble by 20-40%, their frustrations reached a boiling point. However, the first imposter of the story is the global market, which many Polish farmers either overlook or struggle to comprehend.
The European Commission hasn’t received strong evidence backing the idea that cheap Ukrainian grain caused prices to fall. Yet, what we do know is that the decline in prices in Poland is directly linked to the lower prices in the global market. Furthermore, even with increased grain imports from Ukraine in 2022, the Polish grain trade balance remained positive, with exports being several times higher than imports.
Despite this, the protests pushed Brussels to temporarily ban Ukrainian grain imports to Poland and other EU countries. Despite the European Commission suggesting that the ban should be lifted, Poland has declined to alter its position.
The second imposter of the story–Russian influence and Russian grain. Polish-language telegram channels, allegedly run by Russians, are spreading hatred towards Ukraine and its government, which is particularly dangerous given the large number of Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Propagandists have attempted to influence society by claiming that Ukrainian grain is poisoned and harmful to the Polish economy.
In 2023, protests against the import of Ukrainian grain became a political tool before the Polish parliamentary elections, with support from the right-wing radical party Confederation. Its leader, Grzegorz Braun, is known for his radical actions and ties to Russia, including funding from the Kremlin and organizing protests.
Despite Poland’s formal recognition of the absence of banned Ukrainian goods in Poland, protests on the border with Ukraine continue. The queues at the border number about 6,000 cars for exit and 2,000 for entry. Meanwhile, trade between Poland and Belarus continues. There are no protests surrounding Belarusian imports. Though by this line of reasoning, there should be. In 2022-2023, Poland imported $2.6 billion and $55 million worth of goods from Russia and Belarus, respectively, while exports from Ukraine amounted to $1.3 billion. Imports of rapeseed meal from Belarus increased after the ban on its imports from Ukraine. So, here’s the question: Why’s everyone pointing fingers at Ukrainian grain for messing up the Polish market, while Russian and Belarusian goods get a free pass?
So, can we talk, finally?
The lack of understanding and communication proved to be a catastrophic issue in Ukrainian-Polish relations. The lessons from the last few months are clear: we need to talk. Despite being producers of the same niche, Ukraine and Poland can collaborate to ensure that both countries have their revenues.
Agricultural producers should learn about market possibilities, and discuss compromises suggested by the European Commission. Dariusz Szymczycha from the Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce notes that Polish exports surged to $950 million in 2023, surpassing Turkey, Germany, and Italy. From January to November 2023, Poland’s total exports to Ukraine soared to $10.163 billion, marking a 17% increase compared to the previous year. Conversely, Ukraine’s exports to Poland declined by 27%, reaching $4.053 billion during the same period.
Secondly, policymakers from both Ukraine and Poland should work together to ensure that changes are made and that there is no covert influence from Russia. The Polish government should invest in infrastructure to support surplus storage and exports. Unfortunately, it has overlooked this problem for the past two years, contrasting with Romania’s proactive approach, which has resulted in a shift of cross-border traffic from Poland to Romania. Furthermore, they should prioritize strategic decision-making over hastily reacting to unsubstantiated claims about Ukrainian grain and agricultural products. All of this leads to an even bigger challenge: revising the Common Agricultural Policy–especially as Ukraine moves towards EU integration. Another pressing issue for the EU is to decide on sanctions against Russian agricultural goods, which have long been overlooked as a major contributor to global market depression. Russia’s ongoing violation of international law further complicates the situation.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Ukrainian Moravia; photograph by the Kasova Hora | Image sourced from Wikimedia Commons | CC License, no changes made