Part 1: The Decline of Iran’s Regional Hegemony
General Introduction
Recent events in the Middle East are reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape, signaling a departure from long-standing alignments and ushering in a multipolar recalibration of influence. As Iran and Russia grapple with economic strain, diplomatic isolation, and strategic miscalculations, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States are reasserting their roles as dominant players, forging new partnerships, redefining security frameworks, and raising the question: to what extent? These developments mark a significant moment in Middle Eastern affairs, one that reflects broader global trends in multipolar competition, energy realignment, and regional autonomy.
This transformation cannot be understood in isolation; rather, it emerges from a confluence of patterns, economic pressures, and shifting ideological currents. This article series will explore the roles of these key players in shaping the future of the region. To assess their influence, four variables will be taken into consideration: trade and investments, arms exports, military deployment, and diplomatic activity.
The Decline of Iran’s Regional Hegemony
Iran has long positioned itself as a key player in the Middle East, exerting influence through a combination of military intervention, proxy networks, and ideological expansionism. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria in December 2024 and Tehran’s subsequent retreat from the Levant mark a significant turning point in Iran’s regional strategy. While Iranian policymakers may frame this withdrawal as a calculated realignment, the reality is likely more troubling for Iran: its decade-long investment in Syria has crumbled, its proxies are under increasing strain, and its geopolitical standing is deteriorating in the face of coordinated countermeasures from the United States and Israel, and regional adversaries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This section examines the key dimensions of Iran’s strategic decline, analyzing its military setbacks, proxy vulnerabilities, economic constraints, and shifting diplomatic landscape.
Iran’s involvement in Syria has long been a cornerstone of its regional strategy. Since the onset of the Syrian Civil War, Iran invested an estimated $30-50 billion in supporting Assad’s regime, embedding itself within Syrian military structures like the National Defense Forces, the 4th Armored Division, and the Republican Guard. When the anti-Assad revolution broke out in 2011, the Assad regime was about to be toppled in 2012-2013 but was saved by direct Hezbollah intervention. These investments allowed Iran to turn Syria into a logistical hub for weapon transfers to Hezbollah and other militant groups, strengthening its presence on Israel’s northern border and expanding its “Axis of Resistance.” However, this strategy was severely undermined with Assad’s downfall and the collapse of vital strategic assets, such as the Qa’im-Bukamal border crossing between Syria and Iraq, which weakened Iran’s ability to maintain its arms supply network.
Internally, Iran’s economic situation has continued to deteriorate, primarily due to international sanctions targeting its nuclear program, regional influence, and support for groups designated as terrorists, alongside domestic mismanagement. These sanctions have curtailed Iran’s ability to fund its regional operations, leading to limited funding resources for proxy groups and limiting its ability to reinvest in other areas, such as Iraq and Yemen, where it focuses its remaining efforts. Iran’s arms exports, a central component of its regional strategy, are severely restricted due to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian assets, U.S. interdictions, and the loss of strategic bases in Syria, significantly impairing its military capabilities.
Iran’s reliance on proxy forces has been central to its asymmetric warfare strategy, but financial constraints and increased military opposition have placed growing pressure on these groups. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi militias are all under strain. Hezbollah’s political influence in Lebanon is waning, with the Israeli assassination of Nasrallah (Secretary General of Hezbollah) and with the election of a new president backed by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.. In Gaza and Yemen, Iranian-backed groups have faced heavy losses due to Israeli airstrikes and Saudi-led countermeasures, further weakening Iran’s regional power projection. The rapid offensive that led to Assad’s downfall shattered Iran’s long-term strategy. Unlike earlier crises- such as the pivotal battle for Aleppo in 2016, where Iran, along with Russian support, successfully helped the Assad regime recapture the city from rebel forces during the civil war- Iran was unable to mobilize reinforcements, especially when Iraqi authorities blocked Iran-backed militias. Additionally, Israeli airstrikes targeted key Iranian military commanders – including Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas- further eroded Iran’s command structure and exposed the limits of its ability to defend its allies in the region. Moreover, the growing alignment between Hamas and countries like Qatar and Turkey has reduced Tehran’s role in Gaza, leaving its once-dominant position in the region more fragile.
Iran’s military deployment in the region has shifted significantly, with its forces in Syria, led by the IRGC’s Quds Force (a covert branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), playing a key role in defending Assad’s regime. Iran is now refocusing its military efforts on Iraq and Yemen, strengthening ties with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq to bolster its influence ahead of the 2025 elections, sway electoral outcomes, and maintain regional dominance. In Yemen, Iran may increase support for the Houthis to maintain leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime choke point. However, both Iraq and Yemen pose challenges for Iran. In Iraq, nationalist sentiment and political opposition from Sunni and Kurdish populations are limiting Iran’s influence, viewing the PMF as a threat to Iraq’s sovereignty and fear the country could become a client state of Iran. In Yemen, Saudi-led countermeasures, including airstrikes, naval blockades, support for Yemeni government forces, ground operations, and more, are containing Houthi operations.
Diplomatically, Iran faces significant setbacks as its relationships with regional powers become increasingly strained. Despite a temporary rapprochement with Saudi Arabia in 2023, facilitated by China, the broader regional environment remains unfavorable for Tehran, as Gulf states continue to align with the U.S. on security issues, further isolating Iran. The growing engagement between Gulf states and Israel further diminishes Iran’s diplomatic standing, making it harder to rally opposition against Israel. While Iran has attempted to deepen its ties with Russia and China, but these relationships have limits. Russia has provided some military cooperation, but remains cautious in its support due to its own strategic priorities, and China, focused on economic stability, is unlikely to confront the U.S. on Iran’s behalf, leaving it struggling to maintain influence in the region.
Iran’s strategic decline in the Middle East marks a profound shift in the region’s balance of power. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, coupled with the retreat of Iranian influence, has exposed the fragility of Tehran’s regional ambitions. Its once-dominant position, bolstered by military interventions, has been undermined by a combination of economic constraints, military setbacks, and regional opposition. With its ability to fund and support its proxy groups waning, Iran’s increasing influence in Iraq and Yemen is greatly challenged. Diplomatically, Iran’s regional isolation deepens as Gulf states align with the U.S. and engage with Israel, while its partnerships with Russia and China remain limited. As Iran retreats from the Levant, the Middle East enters a new era, one where the power dynamics are shifting, and players like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel are asserting themselves more prominently, signaling a changing balance of power that could redefine the region’s future.
This situation contains the seeds of future conflict. Will resistance be renewed to liberate the Syrian and Lebanese lands newly occupied by Israel, or will the new dominant powers find a solution before this happens? Will Iran mobilize its forces again to spread its regional influence, perhaps to protect its nuclear program from Israeli destruction, or will a new nuclear agreement and entente between the US and Iran defuse the situation? As long as no long-term solutions are found for the Middle Eastern problems, including a fair solution to the Palestinian question, and as Iran’s regional influence continues to wane, a new order is emerging—one that will be defined by shifting alliances and evolving power dynamics.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: “Iran Flag from Taleghani Park” by David Sandoz, Image sourced from Flickr | CC License, no changes made