Part 3: Saudi Arabia’s Ascendancy: Balancing Power, Partnerships, and Global Influence
Saudi Arabia is emerging as one of the most consequential actors in the Middle East, redefining its role through a carefully calibrated foreign policy that balances regional leadership aspirations with global economic and diplomatic engagements. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the designated successor to the King, is steering the Kingdom toward greater geopolitical autonomy, leveraging its vast economic resources, strategic partnerships, and mediation efforts to expand its influence. However, Saudi Arabia faces challenges, particularly regarding its stance on Israel, its evolving relationships with the United States and China, and its role in shaping post-conflict regional dynamics. This analysis examines Saudi Arabia’s shifting influence in the Middle East as it fills the power vacuum left by the declining influence of Iran and Russia.
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic strategy is defined by a mix of calculated pragmatism and bold initiatives. A prime example of this is its cautious approach to normalizing relations with Israel. While the Kingdom has signaled openness to normalization, it has repeatedly reaffirmed that any agreement must be contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. This stance aligns more with the Arab Peace Initiative than the Abraham Accords- that do not list the creation of a Palestinian state as a precondition. The Arab Peace Initiative, adopted unanimously by 23 Arab states in 2002 and confirmed by the Arab Summit earlier this year, reversed the traditional negative Arab position toward peace with Israel and offered a comprehensive peace plan for ending the Arab Israeli conflict. The continued strikes in Gaza have further complicated the process, making it politically untenable for Riyadh to pursue normalization without substantial Israeli concessions. Saudi media has aggressively criticized Netanyahu, reflecting broader frustrations with his policy and its impact on regional stability. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is spearheading an alternative Arab plan to counter American-Israeli proposals for Palestinian displacement. This initiative, which focuses on rebuilding Gaza with Gulf funding while sidelining Hamas from governance, underscores the Kingdom’s determination to shape the postwar order on its own terms, highlighting its ability to balance U.S. expectations with Arab consensus, reinforcing its leadership within the region.
Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States remains central to its foreign policy, yet the Kingdom has adopted a more independent approach, continuing to pursue a policy of “active neutrality” in global affairs, beyond the Middle East. It has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN but has refrained from joining Western-led sanctions against the Kremlin, allowing it to maintain strategic flexibility and preserve economic and security ties with both the U.S. and Russia. In 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a major international peace summit on Ukraine, demonstrating its ambitions as a global diplomatic power. Even though Russia dismissed the summit, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in prisoner exchanges and backchannel diplomacy underscored its growing influence beyond the Middle East. Similarly, despite being a key U.S. ally, Saudi officials have emphasized the importance of their relationship with China, describing it as complementary to their alliance with Washington. Hence, Saudi Arabia remains indispensable to both Western and Eastern powers.
Saudi Arabia remains one of the world’s largest arms importers, historically reliant on U.S. and European suppliers for advanced weaponry. However, in recent years, it has diversified its defense partnerships, expanding military cooperation with China, including—areported joint production of drones and ballistic missiles. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has conducted naval exercises with the Chinese navy, signaling its intent to hedge against shifting U.S. commitments in the region. Despite this diversification, the United States remains Saudi Arabia’s primary security guarantor. Ongoing negotiations for a formal U.S.-Saudi defense treaty reflect the recognition that neither China nor Russia can fully replace American military support. However, Saudi leaders are leveraging their growing relationships with Beijing and Moscow to extract greater security guarantees from the U.S., including technology transfers and assistance in developing a domestic defense industry.
Saudi Arabia’s military posture is undergoing a transformation, shifting from direct interventionism—exemplified by its involvement in Yemen—to a more calculated security strategy focused on regional stability and diplomatic engagement. Having significantly reduced its military operations in Yemen, the Kingdom is pursuing a negotiated settlement with the Houthis, who reject the Saudi-backed government, while simultaneously reinforcing its defense capabilities against potential threats. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s reassessment of its relationship with Iran once again reflects its broader shift toward diplomacy over confrontation. The China-brokered détente in 2023 signaled a preference for regional stability over prolonged hostilities. While tensions persist—especially regarding Iran’s support for proxy groups—Saudi Arabia’s engagement with Iran highlights its commitment to preventing further destabilization in the Middle East, rekindling hopes for ending the Yemen conflict, where both countries have historically supported opposing factions.
Under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has aggressively pursued economic diversification, reducing its dependence on oil while expanding investments in infrastructure, technology, and renewable energy. Non-oil sectors account for 52% of GDP, with a projected 6.2% increase by 2026, with Saudi Arabia aiming to position itself as a hub for green energy and advanced technology, aligning its economic ambitions with global trends. In pursuit of Vision 2030, the Kingdom has deepened cooperation with China, now its largest trading partner, in infrastructure, 5G technology, and renewable energy. The Sino-Arabian alignment plan integrates China’s Belt and Road Initiative with Vision 2030, facilitating joint investments in hydrogen energy, electric vehicles, and industrial projects. This shift signals Riyadh’s effort to diversify its partnerships and reduce exclusive reliance on Western economies. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia wields strategic influence over global energy markets through OPEC+, which it co-founded, working closely with Russia to manage oil production and pricing. Despite U.S. pressure to increase production following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kingdom instead coordinated production cuts that favored Moscow, underscoring its prioritization of economic self-interest over Western expectations. This stance is further reflected in its overtures toward joining BRICS—an increasingly potent counterbalance to U.S. influence—as well as its hosting of a meeting between Russia and Ukraine, a significant development after Zelensky’s meeting with Trump. This move underscores Saudi Arabia’s growing confidence in charting an independent economic and foreign policy.
At the regional level, Saudi Arabia has all the qualifications to be a powerhouse—34 million inhabitants, a stable political system, a booming economy, and one of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its past isolationism and extremist Wahhabi social order are largely relics of the past, replaced by a rapid modernization drive that began a few years ago, with tangible change unfolding daily. Leveraging its economic strength and strategic partnerships, Saudi Arabia is reshaping the regional order. By balancing ties with the U.S., China, and Russia, while spearheading regional economic transformations and redefining security strategy, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself at the center of an emerging multipolar order. This new order is defined by fluid alliances and pragmatic diplomacy, moving beyond the past dynamics of U.S. hegemony and Iran-Saudi rivalry, with Saudi Arabia standing at the forefront.As things stand, the war in Gaza remains a determining factor in shaping the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia’s role in normalizing relations between Israel and the Arab world will be pivotal. As regional power structures shift following the decline of both Russia and Iran, a power vacuum has emerged—one that Saudi Arabia is poised to fill. The Kingdom’s support for the two-state solution, tying diplomatic normalization with Israel to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, places it in a unique position of leadership. Saudi Arabia’s potential to broker a peace agreement that reflects broader Arab consensus and upholds Palestinian self-determination could set a new precedent for regional cooperation in the Middle East, countering the status quo.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: “Saudi Arabia said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman conveyed the kingdom’s stance in ‘a clear and explicit manner’ without room for interpretation,” Image source from Free Malaysia Today | CC License, no changes made