Last December, Japan watched on uneasily as another North Korean missile made its way into the East Sea. This was the third test of North Korea’s newest potential nuclear weapon, the Hwasong-18. Hwasong-18 is a solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that reaches up to 6,600 km altitude and boasts 74 minutes of flight time. Designed to be tipped with a nuclear warhead, the Hwasong-18 has vast potential for destruction. Unlike North Korea’s older weapons that utilise liquid fuel, the solid fuel weapon is more difficult to detect and intercept. The danger of North Korea’s increasing missile activities has been met with condemnation from Japan. But this is only the latest installation of historically rocky tensions between the two countries.
The Abduction Cases
In the 1970s and 80s, a series of missing persons reports plagued Japan. While speculations of North Korea’s involvement arose at the time, it was only in September 2002 that then-supreme leader Kim Jong-Il publicly confirmed the country’s role in the disappearances of Japanese citizens. North Korea admitted to having been behind 13 abductions. Official Japanese records identified 17 related cases. Some Japanese organisations even estimated up to 100 cases of missing persons tied to North Korea’s involvement. While Kim attributed the abduction cases to the overzealousness of the North Korean agents, the true motives behind them, and their full scope, remain a mystery.
Upon Kim’s confirmation that North Korea had abducted Japanese citizens, shockwaves of anger ensued in Japan. Many called for the return of the abductees. Japanese media provided extensive coverage of the victims’ abduction stories and portrayed North Korea as “the quintessential symbol of evil“. The Japanese government made the return of abducted victims a top priority in politics. Five victims eventually returned to Japan. However, the lack of answers shrouding the supposed deaths of the remaining eight victims (of the thirteen abductions to which Kim publicly admitted) and other unidentified abductees maintains a powerful grip in Japan. The youngest identified victim, Megumi Yokota, who had been abducted in 1977 at thirteen years old, became the face of public campaigns. While North Korea claimed that Yokota had passed away from suicide and returned her supposed remains in 2004, subsequent DNA testing by the Japanese showed a lack of DNA match between the given remains and Yokota. Shigeru Yokota, father of Megumi, campaigned for her return until his death in 2020 at 87. His wife, Sakie Yokota said: “My husband used up all his strength but could not meet Megumi.”
The abductions generated deep and lasting distrust and frustration among the Japanese towards North Korea. Japanese politicians continue to bring up the abductions by North Korea, framing it as a frontline issue hindering the two countries’ road to normalisation. The Japanese public is in agreement: In annual surveys conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding topics of citizens’ interest related to North Korea, the topic of abduction remains the highest, peaking consistently between eighty and ninety percent ever since 2002. The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been highly vocal and advocated for the return of all the remaining abductees. When Prime Minister Kishida Fumio came to power in 2021, he also proclaimed his resolve to iron out the abduction problem.
It is in this climate of unresolved conflict and tenuous relations that Japan developed its hard-line stance towards North Korea’s nuclear expansion. The abductions were seen by the public and the media as a direct violation of Japan’s sovereignty. Pressure is on the Japanese government to extend a hardened approach towards North Korea in other areas–most notably North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, which is deemed as an acute danger to Japan’s survival.
History of Japan’s hard-line anti-nuclear stance against North Korea
Japan has always taken a hard stance against North Korea’s use of nuclear missiles. Termed as the “dialogue and pressure” approach, Japan actively engages in international forums against North Korea’s nuclear activities. Notably, Japan has participated in six-party talks with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and North Korea held intermittently since 2003. The six-party talks were multilateral negotiations aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear activities per the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. While negotiations took a turn for the better when North Korea declared to abandon its nuclear program in 2005, such talks fell through shortly after the country departed from the negotiation table in 2009. In 2022, Kim Jong-un’s declaration of the irreversibility of North Korea’s nuclear state status marked the bleak future of such negotiations. Japan is thus tasked to contend with a rogue nation with little regard for international norms.
It is no surprise that North Korea’s latest developments have placed Japan’s ballistic missile defences on high alert. Japan sends out J-Alerts to Japanese citizens, particularly on high-risk dates such as North Korea’s “missile industry day.” The country’s Ministry of Defence additionally pledges to go to the extent of “destructive measures” against any form of ballistics and missiles that land on the country’s territory. By threatening the use of military capabilities such as the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) or Patriot Missile PAC-3 to neutralise a North Korean missile, Japan asserts its long-standing opposition towards North Korea’s nuclear program in the global arena. Japan has also increased cooperation with the United States and South Korea, through real-time sharing of North Korea’s missile information in December 2023.
Interpretations of North Korea’s recent missile attacks
The December missile tests mark one of the 16 tests that North Korea sanctioned in 2023, as part of the country’s “five-year plan for the development of defence science and the weapon system” introduced in 2021. Looking at North Korea’s missile development records, former United States Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) consultant Van Diepen projects the operational deployment of Hwasong-18 after approximately one or two more tests. With the potential inclusion of the Hwasong-18 in the country’s burgeoning array of nuclear armaments, the prospect of a North Korean nuclear attack appears increasingly plausible. Coupled with the country’s increasing testing of hard-to-detect short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) since May 2019, North Korea’s determination of becoming the world’s most formidable nuclear power is apparent.
Waseda University Professor Shuji Miyazaki from the School of Political Science and Economics posits that North Korea’s vested desire to increase its nuclear weaponry is rooted in the self-preservation of the existing regime1. Nuclear weaponry is an assurance of the Kim family’s reign. North Korea will take on a cautionary stance about the deployment of the weapons, only enacting bold actions should the country be put in crisis, with China’s hostility as a key factor determining its missile use. Miyazaki’s is largely aligned with that of Japan’s Ministry of Defence, which sees North Korea’s missile program as more of an act of safeguarding its existing regime instead of stemming from the desire for full-out war.
The missile tests are strategic acts of provocation, serving to signal a readiness to confront the possible chance of armed conflicts in the near future. In light of the second missile launch last July, political scientists such as Sogang University Professor Kim Jaechun noted how it was timed to coincide with the 2023 NATO summit, which had the attendance of South Korean President Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This provocation conveyed Kim’s displeasure with the collaboration between both countries directed against North Korea.
Future of Japan-North Korea relations and international security
The future of Japan-North Korea relations remains bleak. The seemingly unceasing nuclear missile testing compounded with the unresolved issue of abductions in the minds of the Japanese public makes the forging of diplomatic relations highly unlikely. Japan’s increasing cooperation with allies the United States and South Korea further poses a threat to North Korea, to which the latter could retaliate with aggression. While political scientists such as Professor Kim Jaechun believe North Korea’s missile aggression to be empty threats, given the erratic nature of the present dictator, one can never be sure of the tipping point of the imminent nuclear war.
The 1970s and 80s abductions played a pivotal role in aggravating present-day tensions between Japan and North Korea, manifesting itself in Japan’s unyielding condemnation towards North Korea’s aggressive missile aggression. The lasting mistrust and historical grievances created due to the abduction cases complicate any possible efforts towards reconciliation. With the missile tests, such feelings of distrust are further intensified, reopening old wounds of the Japanese public. Continuing on such a trajectory, the threat of conflict between both countries looms ahead.
References
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: North Korea strategic forces test-launched Hwasongpho-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on Mar. 24 under the direct guidance of its leader Kim Jong Un., Photo by Øyvind Knoph Askeland | Image sourced from Flickr | CC License, no changes made
- Shuji Miyazaki (Professor, Waseda University), in discussion with author, Shinjuku, Japan, December 11, 2023. ↩︎