After years of political unrest and division, Ethiopia may be headed towards yet another civil war. The nation has faced instability and violence within its ethnic groups for decades, engendering humanitarian atrocities and inhibiting economic growth. Every step towards peace seems to precede two steps back into an almost habitual state of unrest, which begs the question of how probable long-term harmony really is.
Most recently, in the Tigray region, shifting political dynamics have heightened tensions, setting the stage for another conflict to arise. Sensing this tension, Tigray locals have begun to panic; hastily withdrawing their money from banks and hoarding food and essentials.
While this panic is premature, it’s also understandable given the tumultuous history of the region. Recently, a civil war between the central government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an ethnic nationalist party of Tigray, concluded in 2022 after two years of continuous conflict.
The conflict began with the election of prime minister Abiy Ahmed, a member of the Oromo ethnic group – the largest in Ethiopia. Prior to his appointment, Ethiopian politics had been dominated by the Tigrayans, who make up only about 7% of the population. As a rejection to this redistribution of power, the TPLF – Tigray’s main political group – refused to join Abiy’s new Prosperity Party, which replaced the previous coalition headed by the Tigray group. Tensions escalated when Tigray held its own election in 2020, defying the central government and designating it as illegitimate since national elections had been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. The crisis heightened when TPLF forces seized multiple federal military camps in the region, prompting widespread defections of Tigrayan soldiers from the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) to the TPLF. Abiy responded by sending ENDF troops to the region, further intensifying the conflict. The TPLF retook the region in 2021, and pressure mounted as Abiy was announced to have won the national parliamentary election, which was boycotted by the TPLF. As the TPLF moved closer to the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Abiy called for citizens to join the war effort and successfully forced back Tigray forces, which had marched within eighty-five miles of the capital.
In 2022, the Pretoria agreement was signed by Tigray and the federal government in South Africa, which promised to give the federal government control of Tigray and disarm Tigray forces. Though the conflict had ended, it left behind a traumatized country, with humanitarian atrocities committed on all sides, hundreds of thousands dead, and millions displaced. In hopes of facilitating a smooth recovery and maintaining peace in the region, the federal government placed an interim government in Tigray.
With the placement of the interim government, peace was finally restored, and the war became a painful memory. However, hostility and unease have begun to rise again. With the political dynamic in Ethiopia shifting yet again, some senior Tigrayan military leaders have begun to push for another dramatic power shift, deciding to dissolve and restructure the interim administration. They argue that the interim government is weak and fails to meet the responsibilities necessitated by the region.
Tigrayans seem to be split regarding this decision. Many young people are protesting against a restructuring, fearing that it may lead to another war, especially since the interim government stated that the decision was clearly an attempted coup. With hundreds of thousands still displaced and traumatized by the starvation and death caused by the last war, they urge the federal government to ensure the proper implementation of the Pretoria agreement. Some, however, have demonstrated in support of the decision, and believe that another war would lead to a victory for Tigray rather than a loss.
Though this stance may seem unrealistic, it is not without justification. While the central government is in a better position than Tigray regarding military prowess, the TPLF has begun to bolster its position with strange yet strategic alliances. One alleged ally, Eritrea, is particularly shocking, given that the nation helped the Ethiopian federal government retain control over Tigray during the last war and committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in the region. However, with ties between Ethiopia’s federal government and Eritrea souring, Eritrea has been accused of collaborating with Tigray, which borders Eritrea, to facilitate the coup against the federal government. This has been denied by Eritrean president Isais Aswerki.
The TPLF has also sought out allies within the borders of Ethiopia, specifically with the Amhara group. This is also striking, given that the Amhara group was another ally of the federal government during its last war with Tigray. However, dynamics have shifted with the current war in Amahara, which began after the 2022 agreement with the TPLF. In the agreement, Eritrea and the Amhara were alienated, despite having invested significant resources into the conflict. The ethnic group is now contesting federal control in much of the Amhara region, threatening national stability and Abiy’s rule.
Given all of the instability in Ethiopia, Abiy has a lot on his hands. With so much unrest already, it would be difficult for the federal government to address the conflict in Tigray if it heightened any further. It is for this exact reason that senior members of the TPLF believe they have a chance in another war.
However, in order for Tigray to engage in another conflict of such magnitude, it must unite under the shared sense of ethnic nationalism that it once had. While the ethnocentric pull of the TPLF was strong enough to turn federal military officers in the first war, now, the region’s own citizens can’t decide if they want another war. The region is largely split into a “young” group that refuses to fight another war for the older generation and an “older” group that seeks to restore the level of influence and strength that Tigray once had in their lifetimes. At a rally in support of the decision, a participant stated, “We are demanding the return of displaced persons, respect for our territory, and the replacement of the interim administration, as they have betrayed the people.”
The split has become so severe that young soldiers in Tigrayan forces have begun to abandon their posts in protest. Without a consolidated population, Tigray has a slim chance of winning a war against the federal government, regardless of the political dynamic shifts bolstering their position.
Even without another war in Tigray, Ethiopia is far from peaceful. The nation constantly suffers from ethnic conflicts that riddle the country. This constant state of duress has prevented the federal government from being able to focus on economic progress for the nation. In fact, Abiy has received criticism for working on development projects rather than focusing on quelling the violence suffered by the Ethiopian people.
The political unrest in Ethiopia not only handicaps the federal government but also drives away foreign investors, a key actor for infrastructure and development, who question if sustainable economic growth is possible in a country so unstable. That being said, Ethiopia still has one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and has the potential for extensive economic growth. However, such growth must be preceded by crucial political reform. In Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement must be properly implemented to ensure a stable interim administration and prevent further conflict in the region. Further, the federal government must facilitate peace in the Amhara region and mend its credibility and legitimacy. Without effectively addressing its domestic issues, Ethiopia will not be able to assume its economic potential or grow sustainably and will be stuck in a perpetual state of conflict and instability.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Soldiers in Ethiopia | Image sourced from FMT | CC License, no changes made