In 2015, Russia signed the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2019, the nation formally joined. According to the Kremlin, Russia aims to significantly reduce emissions by 2030 all while fostering sustainable economic development. Since then, Russia has published numerous doctrines emphasizing their lofty goals on climate focused initiatives. The 2023 Kremlin’s updated climate doctrine vows carbon neutrality by 2060, citing numerous carbon reduction projects aimed to offset emissions and international research efforts to effectively implement these measures.
Russia claims it is committed to climate awareness, but its actions tell a different story. While the Kremlin signs climate agreements and works policies into national strategy, it quietly stands to gain more from a warming planet.
Like every country, climate change stands to harm Russia in some form. Thawing permafrost in its north is disrupting infrastructure, and warmer weather and droughts are hindering agriculture, one of Russia’s notable exports. Less access to clean water and natural disasters are also looming. This not only affects Russia’s economy, but also creates a lower quality of life for its people. In total, the G20 Climate Risk Atlas predicts that Russia’s economy, across all sectors, will lose 8.93% by 2100 if it sticks to its current climate trajectory. Although Russia remains ill-prepared to confront these realities, top-ranking officials barely recognize these crises or fund key agencies to foster intergovernmental cooperation.
Despite climate agreements and fixed policies, Russia is backsliding towards a less climate-aware nation. This is mainly due to Russia’s economic cash cow—oil and gas exports. In 2024, oil and gas revenues made up 30% of the federal budget revenue. Before the UN’s COP28 climate summit, Russia spoke against the phasing out of fossil fuels. Additionally, the updated climate doctrine pays no mention to the effects of fossil fuels on climate change, a section omitted from the previous doctrine of 2009. At the 2024 COP29, a summit on climate change, Russia ironically sent 900 delegates with the goal of striking bilateral fossil fuel deals.
Furthermore, Russia’s war on Ukraine has also marked their efforts illegitimate. The first two years of the conflict produced over 175 million tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for over $32 billion in environmental damages. Additionally, government funding towards environmental protection ceased once the conflict began. Initiatives for government and private sector companies to adapt for carbon neutrality have also been abandoned due to economic constraints.
The economic and societal issues posed by climate change are abundantly clear to the Kremlin. Despite recent calls to stay in the Paris Agreement and vows to reduce its carbon footprint, Russia’s current trajectory suggests the opposite. Russia’s climate claims are all talk, with little to no action. Any progress seen out of the country are numbers manipulated by the Kremlin through introducing new coefficients to calculate emissions. Why is Russia not making strides to curb global warming and mitigate projected losses?
The answer lies in the Arctic. Russia stands to gain majorly from global warming and melting ice caps. The Arctic Circle is quickly becoming the nexus for worldwide competition and power projection in the coming decades. Russia’s territory accounts for 53% of the Arctic coastline, making it a decisive player. As the Arctic melts, Russia inches closer to massive economic opportunities.
The Arctic holds an estimated 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. However, current conditions in the high Arctic make extraction extremely difficult. This has not stopped Russia though as Moscow plans to extract and export 100 million tons of Arctic oil by 2030. As temperatures rise, conditions ease, opening up more room for exploitation. This was even highlighted in Moscow’s 2023 climate doctrine.
But this is just the beginning. In 2020, Russia approved a development project worth over $300 billion to scale resource extraction in preparation for warmer weather. Russia also partnered with China and Saudi Arabia on the Vostok Oil Project, which was coined the largest in the “modern-day global oil industry.” These projects aim to extract 8 billion barrels of oil from now until 2060.
However, these ambitions are contingent on one factor, the continuation of global warming. Russia lacks an incentive to invest in reducing its carbon footprint because these projects are extremely lucrative.
Better mining conditions are not the only factor global warming will bring; it will also melt the ice caps littered through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Currently, the route is open only during the summer months, but once operational year-round, the NSR will cut shipping times between China and Europe by 30% to 40%. The route is in Russia’s Special Economic zone, and Moscow has already made significant investments to control the passage.
Construction on two mega ports on both ends of the NSR (Murmansk and Vladivostok) are set to be complete by 2026. Two other ports along the NSR, in Sabetta and Tiksi, are also under construction. All of this to turn the NSR “into a new Suez.” As melting ice caps open the route, it is predicted that 270 million tons of cargo will pass through by 2035, a 10x increase from 2022.
Again, the success of these ventures depends on climate change. For Russia, the economic gain and power projection these projects bring, far outweigh the negative impacts of global warming. Russia’s climate strategy is ultimately rooted in calculated contradictions. While the Kremlin claims climate awareness and carbon reduction, its actions tell a different story. Russia’s words are used to save face, and its actions are masked in misinformation to forward its agenda.
Russia does not care about the environment, no matter how much it claims to. It depends on global warming to strengthen its economy and international standing. Until Russia aligns its actions with its climate rhetoric, its environmental promises will remain hollow, a dangerous gamble for both its people and the planet.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Ship in Ice, Image sourced from ISPI | CC License, no changes made