Introduction
Tensions are rising in the eastern Mediterranean as Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece clash over access to significant offshore gas reserves.[1] Turkey has alarmed its neighbors by sending convoys of research and military vessels into disputed waters to begin the process of surveying and drilling, and Greece, Cyprus, France, and Italy have conducted military exercises or deployed more forces to the region in response. Mediation efforts by the EU have so far failed to broker any compromise, and recent clashes between Turkish and Greek vessels have led many to worry that a more serious conflict could emerge.[2][3] While this conflict is unlikely to resemble a full-blown war, it may develop to parallel the “hybrid warfare” present in a similar ongoing conflict in the South China Sea.[4] Perhaps more concerningly, the two disputes are scuttling maritime international law at a time when the rapidly globalizing world economy is increasingly reliant on the seas.
Defining Context: The Cyprus Dispute
Cyprus has been inhabited by Greek and Turkish populations for centuries, and this ethnic division has been the source of a decades-long conflict over the nation’s political status.[5] The island gained its independence from Britain in 1960, and at first, the government balanced power between the two groups, though the majority Greek population wielded significantly more power.[6] [7] In 1963, however, the compromise broke down, and the Turkish Cypriots left the government claiming that the Greeks had forced them out. The Greeks insisted they had left of their own accord.[8] Violence broke out between the two groups shortly thereafter, prompting UN intervention.[9] In 1974, Greece backed a coup d’état to install a leader who sought to reunify the country as a part of Greece, a primary goal of many Greek Cypriots.[10] [11] This violated the treaty Turkey, Greece, and Britain had signed in granting Cyprus its independence, prompting Turkey to invade the northern part of the country to protect its independence.[12] Turkey continues to occupy the north, which is now formally organized as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and contains most of the Turkish Cypriot community.[13] Tensions persist between the two groups, and there is no current solution to reunite the country.
This complicated domestic political situation has significant implications for granting Cyprus economic rights to maritime territory under international law. Turkey is the only nation to formally recognize the TRNC, while the predominantly Greek Cypriot Republic of Cyprus in the south enjoys international recognition, but this alone is not sufficient to solve the problem.[14] [15] Since international law apportions the right to exploit maritime resources to states based on their borders, it is unlikely that any consensus on maritime boundaries can be agreed upon as long as the sovereignty of Cypriot communities themselves remains in question.[16]
The Legal Dispute
Rights to exploit maritime resources are governed by international law under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS. The convention grants each country exclusive access to all natural resources within 200 nautical miles of its coastline.[17] This area is known as a nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ.[18] The exact delineation of EEZs has repeatedly led to conflict, as nations’ 200nm boundaries often overlap, and UNCLOS provides no explicit mechanism for reconciling overlapping claims.[19] Countries are required to work out agreements between themselves, which can be difficult when states have competing interests and a history of animosity.[20] Nations are also occasionally entitled to all waters above their continental shelf up to 350 nautical miles, and definitions of what this entails also tend to spark conflict.[21]
Much of the gas in the Eastern Mediterranean lies in the UN-recognized EEZs of Greece and Cyprus, but Turkey insists that it too has drilling rights.[22] Turkey’s claims to Greek and Cypriot waters are distinct and both merit a close look.
[France24 Image]
While Turkey has more coastline on the Aegean Sea, Greece has been able to claim the lion’s share of the maritime territory because of its numerous island possessions which stretch nearly to Turkey’s borders.[23] [24] Turkey argues that these islands are not justification to extend Greece’s EEZ, and international law has so far been relatively inconclusive on the matter.[25] [26] However, neither side so far has been willing to go to the international tribunal in the Hague for arbitration.[27] Instead, Turkey has sent vessels into Greek waters, and Greece has announced a military buildup in reply.[28] [29]
In Cyprus, Turkey also objects to the Republic of Cyprus’s plans to lease drilling rights to portions of its EEZ to European oil companies.[30] Ankara argues that the Turkish Cypriots in the North are entitled to some of the revenues the Greek South was planning to keep for itself.[31] This is where the controversial relationship between the North and the South comes into play. If Cyprus truly is one country, then Northern Cypriots would have a legitimate claim to some of the benefits.[32] Turkey also claims direct sovereignty over some waters off the coast of Cyprus for its own use, alleging that they are rightfully Turkey’s, though this claim has lacked much explanation or legal backing.[33] Ankara is clearly determined, however, as it has sent a number of research and military vessels to survey the area for drilling while forcibly keeping an Italian vessel licensed by the Republic of Cyprus out.[34]
The Verdict
While many details of the dispute, particularly those regarding interpretations of international law, are relatively ambiguous, one thing is abundantly clear: Turkey has demonstrated its willingness to aggressively use military force to exercise its national policy. While Turkey claims territory under UNCLOS, it has not formally signed and ratified the treaty, nor does it seem willing to settle the matter in international court.[35] [36] Turkey’s bold and active use of its military has galvanized its neighbors against it, as Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan, Palestine, the UAE, and France have formed a loose coalition to oppose its claim to the gas reserves.[37]
Turkey appears to have two distinct motivations behind its aggression in the region. One is economic and relatively straightforward; Turkey spent $41 billion on energy imports in 2019, which is economically and strategically disadvantageous.[38] The other is political and much more complex. Erdoğan, like other authoritarian leaders such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly used aggression overseas to project a facade of strength in order to distract from his domestic political failings and weaknesses.[39] Turkish rhetoric has focused on reclaiming a “blue homeland,” referring to parts of the Eastern Mediterranean that many Turkish political elites consider having been stolen from Turkey by European colonial powers.[40] This rhetoric has concerned several European leaders, including one French politician who compared Erdoğan’s aggression and rhetoric to that of Hitler in the years leading up to WWII.[41] While this last comparison is likely an exaggeration, Turkey’s behavior does fall in line with a concerning global trend. Disaffected powers such as Turkey, Russia, and China have increasingly pushed against or outright rejected the authority of international institutions created largely by the West in the past 75 years.[42] There is certainly room for the argument that these institutions were heavily biased to favor the Western powers, but the outright rejection of institutions designed to prevent another world war by some of the largest powers in the world is nonetheless extremely concerning.
A Parallel Crisis: The South China Sea Case
The situation in the Eastern Mediterranean bears remarkable similarities to a congruent flare-up in the South China Sea between China and its neighboring countries.[43] Both regions are immensely important for international shipping and contain significant natural resources.[44] In addition, both China and Turkey have employed similar methodologies, as the two powers have aggressively used naval power to enforce their claims.[45] One notable divergence between the two situations is the level of regional resistance each aggressor has faced.[46] China has largely gone unchecked in its expansion: even an explicit ruling by the UNCLOS tribunal which declared that artificial islands do not carry EEZ rights failed to deter Chinese expansion.[47] Turkey, on the other hand, has faced considerable opposition from its neighbors, many of whom have more developed militaries.[48]
Future of the Dispute and International Law of the Seas
The crash in oil prices brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic offered a chance for all parties to slow down and draft a strategy to de-escalate the conflict, but this chance will likely be wasted, as Erdoğan recently opted to press on and continue the drilling.[49] Going forward, experts predict that Turkey may follow in the footsteps of China and adopt a “hybrid warfare” strategy that includes the use of a paramilitary-style coast guard to enforce its claims.[50] Such conflict is troubling to see, especially in two of the most important sea routes for international trade. The coming years will be pivotal for the future of UNCLOS and maritime international law. If the current institutions fail to resolve these ongoing disputes, the world might need to take a second look at its strategy to ensure peace on the high seas.
Works Cited
[1] Romain Brunet, “Troubled Waters: Greek-Turkish Escalations in the Mediterranean,” France 24, August 28, 2020, https://www.france24.com/en/20200828-troubled-waters-greek-turkish-escalations-in-the-mediterranean.
[2] Robin Emmott, “Greece, Cyprus Told to Wait for EU Action on ‘provocative’ Turkey,” Reuters, October 16, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit-turkey-idUSKBN271173.
[3] Alessandro Gagaridis, “Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Another South China Sea?,” Geopolitical Monitor (blog), March 20, 2018, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/rising-tensions-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-another-south-china-sea/.
[4] Gagaridis.
[5] David Hunt, “Cyprus — Britannica Academic,” August 25, 2020, https://academic.eb.com/levels/collegiate/article/Cyprus/109746#214648.toc.
[6] Sewell Chan, “Cyprus: Why One of the World’s Most Intractable Conflicts Continues (Published 2016),” The New York Times, November 7, 2016, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/world/europe/cyprus-reunification-talks.html.
[7] Turkish Heritage Organization, “The Cyprus Dispute at a Glance,” The Cyprus Dispute at a glance, accessed November 7, 2020, https://www.turkheritage.org/.
[8] Chan, “Cyprus.”
[9] Turkish Heritage Organization, “The Cyprus Dispute at a Glance.”
[10] Turkish Heritage Organization.
[11] Hunt, “Cyprus — Britannica Academic.”
[12] Turkish Heritage Organization, “The Cyprus Dispute at a Glance.”
[13] Chan, “Cyprus.”
[14] Chan.
[15] Achilles Skordas, “Oil Exploitation in the Eastern Mediterranean: Cyprus, Turkey and International Law | Wilson Center,” accessed November 2, 2020, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/oil-exploitation-the-eastern-mediterranean-cyprus-turkey-and-international-law.
[16] Skordas.
[17] Rachel Esplin Odell and Annelle Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.,” Washington Post, accessed November 2, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/12/greek-turkish-ships-are-playing-chicken-sea-theres-already-been-one-crash/.
[18] Odell and Sheline.
[19] Odell and Sheline.
[20] Odell and Sheline.
[21] Odell and Sheline.
[22] Brunet, “Troubled Waters.”
[23] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[24] Patrick Wintour, “How a Rush for Mediterranean Gas Threatens to Push Greece and Turkey into War,” The Guardian, September 11, 2020, sec. World news, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/mediterranean-gas-greece-turkey-dispute-nato.
[25] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[26] Wintour, “How a Rush for Mediterranean Gas Threatens to Push Greece and Turkey into War.”
[27] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[28] Emmott, “Greece, Cyprus Told to Wait for EU Action on ‘provocative’ Turkey.”
[29] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[30] Frisco Dubbelboer, “UNCLOS UNDER PRESSURE: LAW OF THE JUNGLE OR LAW OF THE SEA?” (Clingendael Institute, July 28, 2020), https://spectator.clingendael.org/en/publication/unclos-under-pressure-law-jungle-or-law-sea.
[31] Renee Maltezou, “U.S. warns Turkey over offshore drilling near Cyprus,” Reuters, October 5, 2019, https://fr.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-greece-pompeo-mitsotakis-idAFKBN1WK04G.
[32] Skordas, “Oil Exploitation in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
[33] Dubbelboer, “UNCLOS UNDER PRESSURE: LAW OF THE JUNGLE OR LAW OF THE SEA?”
[34] Dubbelboer.
[35] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[36] Dubbelboer, “UNCLOS UNDER PRESSURE: LAW OF THE JUNGLE OR LAW OF THE SEA?”
[37] Wintour, “How a Rush for Mediterranean Gas Threatens to Push Greece and Turkey into War.”
[38] Ahmed Helal, “For Turkey, the Libyan Conflict and the Eastern Mediterranean Are Inextricably Linked,” Atlantic Council (blog), October 28, 2020, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/for-turkey-the-libyan-conflict-and-the-eastern-mediterranean-are-inextricably-linked/.
[39] Odell and Sheline, “Analysis | Greek and Turkish Ships Are Playing Chicken at Sea. There’s Already Been One Crash.”
[40] Wintour, “How a Rush for Mediterranean Gas Threatens to Push Greece and Turkey into War.”
[41] Wintour.
[42] Wintour.
[43] Gagaridis, “Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
[44] Gagaridis.
[45] Gagaridis.
[46] Gagaridis.
[47] Gagaridis.
[48] Gagaridis.
[49] Dubbelboer, “UNCLOS UNDER PRESSURE: LAW OF THE JUNGLE OR LAW OF THE SEA?”
[50] Gagaridis, “Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.”