In May 2015, Xi Jinping’s government formalized a ten-year development plan, “Made in China 2025,” to expand China’s industrial and manufacturing capacity to be globally competitive. In the ten years since, the world has witnessed a rapid rise in China’s manufacturing output. Today, the degree to which the goals of this plan have been achieved provides a foundation for predicting how successful China may be in achieving its next ten-year plan. It is important to note that these plans are components of the overarching, long-term strategy which envisages what has been termed ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ to attain the status of a developed, powerful and prosperous state by 2049, the hundredth anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.
Achievements of Made in China 2025
Made in China 2025 aimed to boost quality, innovation, productivity, and the integration of industrialization and informatization. It identified ten sectors for breakthrough development: Information Technology (IT), robotics, aviation and aerospace equipment, offshore engineering equipment and high-tech ships, rail transportation, new energy vehicles, electrical equipment, agricultural machinery, biotech, pharma, and medical devices, and emerging technologies.
By 2023, China led global research in 37 out of 44 critical technologies, as identified by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Critical Technology Tracker, highlighting how China is achieving the goal of breakthrough development. Among these critical technologies, nanoscale materials, 5G and 6G technologies, machine learning, aircraft engines, electric batteries, biological manufacturing, Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms, and autonomous systems particularly demonstrate enhanced capabilities in several of the targeted sectors.
Apart from these ten sectors, the plan emphasized strategic priorities which included manufacturing innovation, integration of informatization and industrialization, industrial capabilities, brand-building, green manufacturing, service-oriented production, and internationalization. Today, China is reported to be among the leading countries in the global innovation race, demonstrating rapid progress in innovative capabilities in robotics, nuclear power, electric vehicles, biopharma, and AI, among others.
Considering the priority of integrating informatization and industrialization, China’s industrial internet was reported to have witnessed an 8.7 percent year-on-year growth in 2022, reaching an output of USD 167.7 billion in 2023. Recently, Beijing has been upgrading its industrial internet with 5G technology, launching a pilot project for this purpose in November 2024. On March 7, a national political adviser confirmed full sectoral coverage in all key industrial sectors.
In terms of industrial capabilities, a report by the UN Industrial Development Organization highlights that in the first quarter of 2024, China performed best among all industrial economies in the manufacturing sector, recording a 1.3 percent growth. Another report by UNIDO projects China to hold a 45 percent share in global industrial production by 2030, while the United States’ share is projected to shrink to 11 percent.
Chinese brands have also made great strides in improving quality standards and going global, following the fourth strategic priority. Fifty Chinese brands featured on the World Brand Lab’s World’s 500 Most Influential Brands ranking in 2024 and 69 in Brand Finance’s Global 500 2025 report. Chinese brands have been expanding their reach most rapidly in the fast-expanding economies of the global south, having increased their sales in these countries fourfold between 2016 and 2024.
In the green manufacturing objective, progress has been more limited, with only three Chinese companies making it on TIME’s World’s Most Sustainable Companies of 2024 list. However, some progress has still been made, with thirteen out of sixteen targets for green development set for 2020 having been met. Beijing aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
These facts indicate that China has been substantially successful in achieving most of its 2025 targets. According to the Flanders-China Chamber of Commerce, over 86 percent of the goals of Made in China 2025 have been met, a claim supported by the indicators above. Given the relative success of this plan, China’s goals for the next ten years provide a roadmap for projecting China’s growth by 2035.
China’s Vision for 2035
Based on the success of the targets set for 2025 and their impact on changing the global manufacturing dynamics, it can be projected that China may attain similar success in its next ten-year plan. By 2035, Beijing aims to become a manufacturing powerhouse with a high capacity for innovation, a leader in global standard-setting, and an economic superpower, as laid out in its Vision 2035 and the China Standards 2035 plan. As part of Vision 2035, the 14th Five-Year Plan, released in 2020, laid out the long-term goal of doubling the size of the economy by 2035. A companion initiative, China Standards 2035, outlines Beijing’s intent to shape global standards for critical emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, information and communications technology, renewable energy, and biotechnology.
In the economic domain, China’s GDP grew from USD 15.45 trillion in 2020 to USD 18.80 trillion in 2024. Doubling the economy from 2020 and reaching USD 31 trillion requires an annual growth of 4.8 percent, but forecasts predict a slowdown that drops annual growth to 3.3 percent by 2029 and below 3 percent after. However, that does not mean China’s growth will be insignificant. With GDP projected at USD 22.73 trillion by 2029, even a growth rate of below 2 percent could still achieve over 80 percent of the target by 2035.
In the technology sector, Beijing is becoming increasingly active in international standard-setting, particularly in critical emerging technologies. In September 2024, the UN’s International Telecommunications Union approved three new standards for 6G mobile technology developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. As of February, Beijing had signed 108 agreements for standards cooperation and mutual recognition with various regional, national, and private partners. Furthermore, the Digital Silk Road under the Belt and Road Initiative also contributes to exporting Chinese standards of technology to partner countries. With Beijing already emerging as a major player in standard-setting, it can be anticipated to have substantially reduced the United States and its allies’ dominance in international standards-setting a decade from today, therefore acquiring considerable control over emerging technologies and their markets.
In 2023, President Xi highlighted “new quality productive forces” as the foundation for future technology-driven economic growth, based on three critical industries – electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, and solar photovoltaics (PV). This focus is reflected in China’s growth, with Beijing leading the world in innovation, production, and export in all three industries. Such progress in innovation can translate to a leading position on global standard-setting in these industries, enabling China to consolidate dominance in these markets.
Challenges on the Path to 2035
China’s path towards 2035 will not be one without obstacles threatening its pace of progress. The most pressing of these challenges will be efforts from the United States to prevent the attainment of goals that threaten American economic and technological dominance. Economic decoupling through tariffs, first initiated under President Trump in 2018, is accelerating again through the imposition of heightened tariffs under his second administration. A report on the effects of the 2018 trade war discovered that weak market substitution constrained Chinese exporters’ ability to offset the impact of tariff hikes through diversion to alternate foreign markets, an effect likely to reappear as the United States was China’s second-largest export market in 2024. However, the severity of this impact can be expected to be comparatively lower as China’s trade with other countries has been rising more rapidly than with the U.S. and its Western allies, with ASEAN remaining the largest trading partner and trade with BRI partners constituting over half the total trade in 2024.
Heightening instability in the international system, with increasing pockets of conflict and geopolitical tensions, will also continue undermining global economic growth, including that of China. In Southeast Asia, tensions over the South China Sea – particularly with the Philippines and Taiwan – threaten regional trade. Increasing assertiveness in these disputes by China has been accompanied by growing bilateral partnerships between the U.S. and these regional states. Taiwan, in particular, remains a potential flashpoint, evidenced by increasing Chinese military activity around the island, growing arms transfers from Washington to Taipei, and a softening of Washington’s stance against Taiwanese independence.
In the technology sector, the tech war with the U.S. will hinder Beijing’s efforts for technological dominance. Washington’s efforts to choke China’s access to semiconductor chips through Taiwan have remained a major obstacle in China’s technological growth, as evidenced by Beijing’s recent investigation into the impact of U.S. government subsidies in this sector. However, the DeepSeek upset to the U.S.-dominated AI industry has highlighted China’s ability to innovate despite these restrictions.
Conclusion
China’s growth towards its goals for 2035 will be constrained by these challenges, and the realization of these goals in their entirety cannot be expected to materialize. However, Beijing’s demonstrated ability to innovate and its efforts to expand the pool of its economic partners will bolster growth despite these challenges, making a success rate similar to that of ‘Made in China 2025’ plausible. This projected estimate of success for the 2035 goals would directly contribute to enhancing China’s economic might and technological dominance.
Significant changes in the international system can be expected as China continues on this projected growth trajectory, as the United States and its allies would have to double down against growing Chinese influence in order to protect the ideological dominance of the rule-based order. With this in mind, the next decade can be anticipated to be an important and turbulent one, as the degree of China’s success in achieving its goals for 2035 will impact the severity of its challenge to the dominance of the U.S.-led international political and economic order.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Tech Technology Factory Zuhai China, Image sourced from Wikimedia Commons | CC License, no changes made