Estimated to cost almost 5 billion dollars at completion and holding 74 billion cubic meters of water at capacity, Ethiopia’s new hydroelectric dam will produce more power than any other hydroelectric source on the continent and has been advertised as a cheap energy option for Ethiopia and its neighboring states [1].
While the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) construction has been shrouded in controversy for over a decade, the dam’s production of power for the first time just over a month ago has resparked tensions between Ethiopia and its downstream neighbor, Egypt [2]. For Ethiopia, a nation with over 60% of its citizens off the electric grid, the GERD represents an opportunity to provide a large portion of its population with the benefits of an electrified world and become a regional leader in clean and renewable energies [3]. Egypt, however, relies heavily on the waters of the Nile River and views the dam, which obstructs the natural flow of one of the Nile’s two main tributaries, as an “existential threat” [4].
Soliciting the majority of its funding through government employee wage donations, normal tax revenue, and contributions from the Ethiopian Diaspora, Ethiopia built the GERD with autonomy in mind [5]. The nation reportedly refused funding offers from Egypt and dismissed Western financial institutions in fear that those who lent would try to dictate how Ethiopia used the dam, especially in years of low precipitation or drought [6]. This fear was not misplaced as Egypt, Sudan (another nation dependent on the Nile), and their allies have all called for Ethiopia to pause dam construction or filling at some point in the past decade.
Egypt, who attempted to kill plans for the GERD before the project commenced, claims Ethiopia is in violation of international laws, citing a 1959 agreement made between Egypt and Sudan which gave the two nations all rights to the Nile’s waters and a 1929 Egyptian treaty with England which gave Egypt veto power over any constructions anywhere along the Nile [7]. While these treaties are dated, Egypt has succeeded in halting past projects, using its alliances and these agreements to maintain the status quo. Additionally, at the behest of the African Union, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia signed a “Declaration of Principles” on topics of the Nile which Egypt asserts Ethiopia is breaking through its unilateral decision to fill the dam [8]. Ethiopia has responded to these accusations with claims that the GERD will help prevent devastating floods in Egypt and neighboring Sudan, but the nation has noticeably yet to commit to releasing water from the dam in the event of seasonal drought as their priority remains producing electricity, a fact which concerns Egypt greatly.
Egypt’s unease is not without merit. With 97% of its drinking and irrigation waters coming from the Nile, any disruption to the flow of the river could result in consequences that are felt for years [9]. Farmers in Egypt see the dam as the source of an impending doom, and hieroglyphic carvings which tell the story of past devastating droughts have only served to raise anxiety [10][11]. Even without the threat of the GERD, Egypt is a water-poor country with only 570 cubic meters of water available annually per capita, an alarmingly low number given that a nation with less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per capita is water impoverished [12]. And more troubling is that by 2025 that number is predicted to dip below 500 cubic meters per person due to population growth, poor water management, climate change, and, according to some, the GERD [13]. Unexpected and unannounced decisions by Ethiopia to divert water have made some in Egypt feel overly vulnerable, and historical fears that Ethiopian empires of old would divert the Nile in the event of a conflict with Egypt have resurfaced, causing further turmoil between the two nations [14][15].
Though Egypt has not faced any water crises thus far despite the GERD’s filling nearing completion, Ethiopia’s success in producing clean energy this past month has paved the way for a troubling precedent among other Nile tributary nations. Encouraged to set up their own dams, these nations represent further dangers to the ever Nile-dependent Egypt. While an agreement might eventually be made with Ethiopia, the possibility of more dams sprouting up along the Nile and its tributaries keeps Egypt in a perpetual state of risk.
For now, it appears that the GERD, seen by many in Ethiopia as a symbol of economic and technological progress, will continue producing electricity despite Egypt’s wishes, but with Egypt’s water concerns not going away and climate change continuing to impact the amount of water available to the country, the GERD remains a threat that Egypt might one day decide is too great to challenge with words alone. Further, the lack of existing international water laws and the scarcity of clean water throughout the globe hint at more conflicts of this nature occurring in the future with starker outcomes than what has played out between Ethiopia and Egypt thus far a distinct possibility. These two nations can set the right example for the rest of the globe by agreeing to set standards regarding the dam and water regulation, but with the scarcity of water only increasing each year, nations might begin taking actions that make the verbal sparring and posturing between Egypt and Ethiopia look like child’s play.
Works Cited:
[1] “About Gerd – Mygerd: The Official Giving Platform for Gerd.” Accessed April 5, 2022. https://mygerd.com/page/about-gerd.
[2] Ethiopia Starts Generating Power from River Nile Dam.” BBC News. BBC, February 20, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60451702?pinned_post_locator=urn%3Abbc%3Acps%3Acurie%3Aasset%3Ad9e1a044-4020-4120-80c4-e9b47f64babd&pinned_post_asset_id=60451702&pinned_post_type=share.
[3] Person, and Dawit Endeshaw. “Ethiopia Turns on the Turbines at Giant Nile Hydropower Plant.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, February 21, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-turns-turbines-giant-nile-hydropower-plant-2022-02-20/.
[4] Mbaku, John Mukum. “The Controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.” Brookings. Brookings, March 9, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/.
[5] “Financing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – Researchgate.” Accessed April 5, 2022. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326656445_Financing_the_Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam.
[6] Maasho, Aaron. “Insight-Paying for Giant Nile Dam Itself, Ethiopia Thwarts Egypt but Takes Risks.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, April 23, 2014. https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-energy-idUSL6N0N91QM20140423.
[7] Mbaku, John Mukum. “The Controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.” Brookings. Brookings, March 9, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/.
[8] “Declaration of Principles on Renaissance Dam Is ‘Exclusive Agreement’ Binding Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan Together: Intl. Law Expert.” EgyptToday, June 23, 2020. https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88909/Declaration-of-Principles-on-Renaissance-Dam-is-exclusive-agreement-binding.
[9] Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia Turns on the Turbines at Controversial Nile Mega-Dam.” Energy News | Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, February 20, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/20/ethiopia-electricity-production-gerd-blue-nile-mega-dam.
[10] “Ancient Inscription Reminds Modern Egypt of Drought Risk.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, September 16, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-nile-history-idUKKBN267292.
[11] Al Jazeera. “’Means Our Death’: Egyptian Farmers Fear Effect of Ethiopia Dam.” Drought News | Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, August 20, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/8/20/means-our-death-egyptian-farmers-fear-effect-of-ethiopia-dam.
[12] “Ancient Inscription Reminds Modern Egypt of Drought Risk.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, September 16, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-nile-history-idUKKBN267292.
[13] “Egypt Has a Water Problem-and No, It’s Not Only the Gerd.” Atlantic Council, June 2, 2021. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/egypt-has-a-water-problem-and-no-its-not-only-the-gerd/.
[14] “Ethiopia Starts Generating Power from River Nile Dam.” BBC News. BBC, February 20, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60451702?pinned_post_locator=urn%3Abbc%3Acps%3Acurie%3Aasset%3Ad9e1a044-4020-4120-80c4-e9b47f64babd&pinned_post_asset_id=60451702&pinned_post_type=share.
[15] “Who Owns the Nile?” Origins. Accessed April 5, 2022. https://origins.osu.edu/article/who-owns-nile-egypt-sudan-and-ethiopia-s-history-changing-dam?language_content_entity=en#:~:text=The%20Nile%20has%20been%20essential,the%20gift%20of%20the%20Nile.%E2%80%9D.