Poland’s upcoming presidential election on May 18, 2025, promises to hold significant implications for European politics. The nation’s political landscape is dominated by two major parties: the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) group and the centrist Civic Platform. The current president, Andrzej Duda, has been instrumental in sustaining PiS’s influence, whereas Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, affiliated with the Civic Platform, has introduced a shift in the conduct of politics to centrism within the country. The presidential elections may usher in a new era of progressivism for Poland—one that would be more aligned with surrounding countries, strengthening Poland’s ties with the European Union. As Duda’s presidency nears its conclusion, there is a possibility that PiS may face its final reign.
PiS has continuously held its ground throughout the years in Poland’s political landscape. Notably, PiS has been the key instrument in seizing power over Poland’s judiciary and public media, while also instilling harsh laws regarding migrants, women and the LGBTQ+ community. After being in power for eight years, PiS was hit in October 2023 with the election of Prime Minister Tusk. Yet, throughout his time in office, Tusk has not been able to fully deliver on many campaign promises due to conflicting views with President Duda. Tusk and Duda have polarized backgrounds, with Tusk being the former European Commission President, running on a pro-European Union and pro-NATO platform for the Republic of Poland, two organizations President Duda has shown much disdain for in the past.
Consistent frictions between Tusk and Duda are rooted in Duda’s insistent support for conservative laws, limiting the Civic Platform’s progressive stance. In December 2023, for example, President Duda prevented the shutdown of a pro-PiS public broadcaster, thus showcasing the government’s direct control of public media. In February 2024, Duda vetoed laws that would allow for over-the-counter access to the morning-after pill for women and girls from age 15 and older, cementing religious ideals that rule politics in Poland. In March 2025, President Duda refused to sign off on new ambassadorial appointees after feeling “blindsided” by the recall of 50 ambassadors. With these politically unpopular actions and President Duda ending his last few months in office, many have fallen out of line with PiS’s politics, thus causing concern for the party’s endurance if PiS’s candidate, Karol Nawrocki, does not win.
On the other hand, Warsaw’s mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, who is aligned with the Civic Platform party, has been chosen to run as the party’s candidate for president. During his acceptance speech in November 2024, Trzaskowski told party members, “In PiS, one vote matters, while we value every vote, and that’s how we differ.” With Trzaskowski’s support from Prime Minister Tusk, many Polish citizens wonder how a Civic Platform president might change the political landscape, for the majority of Tusk’s agenda since the beginning of his term has faced significant pushback.
Questions have also begun to circle around how Poland’s relationship with the United States might shift if a Civic Platform president rises to power. It is no secret that President Duda and President Trump have a close friendship, with Duda infamously meeting with Trump during his 2024 hush money trials in New York. During the meeting, Trump stated, “[Duda] is my friend and we had four great years together and we may have to do it again.” The official website for the Polish President has also made statements on behalf of the president: “The alliance with the US is strong. We are reinforcing and want to further reinforce the bonds of Polish-American cooperation and friendship, considering them as a crucial, even foundational, guarantee of national security and economic development.”
Similar sentiments can be found on the US State Department website, where it is written: “Poland is a stalwart ally in Central Europe and one of the United States’ strongest partners in fostering security and prosperity regionally, throughout Europe, and the world.” During the Biden administration, President Duda had withheld congratulating Biden on his win in the 2020 elections.
President Duda’s feelings towards President Trump are not shared among politicians in Poland, especially by Prime Minister Tusk. Tusk has called out President Trump for his “anti-Ukrainian sentiment” and “pro-Russian attitude” back in April 2024. Furthermore, Tusk’s pro-European Union stance has been strongly favored in the nation, hoping to boost unity in Poland. With elections just around the corner, the results could aid or destroy the government that Tusk promised to his supporters. Tusk’s election win showcases a shift in Poland’s politics towards progressive politics, but to what extent? Many citizens still value traditional and religious values, yet trends have shown Civic Platform’s candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, is leading in the polls above PiS’s candidate, Karol Nawrocki. With President Duda completing his second term on August 6th, 2025, will he be the end of traditional conservatism in Poland?
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: “Polish President Andrzej Duda listens to a question during a joint news conference,” Image source from Global Look Press/Keystone Press Agency | CC License, no changes made