British politics have been dominated by the Conservative Party and the Labour Party for decades. Since the 1930s, every prime minister has belonged to one of these two groups. Tory and Labour supremacy was on full display during the 2019 parliamentary elections, where the two parties won more than three-quarters of all votes cast, with the Conservatives securing 43.6% of the vote and Labour 32.2%. With Conservative and Labour reign being virtually unchallenged for decades, the rise of the Reform UK party has shaken British politics.
Reform UK was founded as the Brexit Party in 2019 by Nigel Farage. The party’s primary focus was advocating for a hard Brexit, the UK’s complete exit from the European Union. After Brexit was achieved, the party rebranded as Reform UK in 2020, shifting its focus to broader political reforms. In July 2024, Nigel Farage took the reins as leader of Reform UK and led the party to a powerful finish in that year’s parliamentary elections. Reform earned 14.6% of the popular vote, finishing third just behind Labor and the Conservatives. But despite its third-place finish in the popular vote, Reform only won five of the 650 parliamentary seats due to Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Although Reform UK currently holds only five parliamentary seats, its rise poses a serious threat to the Conservatives. In the 2024 elections, the Tories suffered their lowest seat share ever, securing just 121 seats. This decline can largely be attributed to Reform UK winning over right-wing voters who had traditionally backed the Conservatives. While Reform UK didn’t capture enough votes to win most right-leaning districts, its growing popularity allowed it to siphon crucial support from the Tories, contributing to a resounding Labour victory. Recent polls show Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives and neck-and-neck with Labour. If Reform UK continues to draw right-wing support away from the Tories while Labour maintains its hold on the left, the Conservatives could find themselves increasingly squeezed from both sides, facing the very real prospect of political irrelevance.
While current polling suggests that Reform UK is in a strong position to gain seats in the next election, it is widely believed that if they want to transition from a fringe party to a mainstay in British politics, they must do two things: continue offering a right-wing alternative to the Conservatives and avoid partisan infighting. Reform has done a tremendous job of acting as an alternative to the Tories, but a public rift between Nigel Farage and Reform MP Rupert Lowe is threatening Reform Party unity.
The tensions between Farage and Lowe began in January 2025, when Elon Musk and Farage publicly fell out. On January 5, Musk posted on X that, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.” Musk then endorsed Lowe as a potential replacement. Lowe responded by thanking Musk but made it clear that Farage would remain the leader of Reform UK, praising Farage’s accomplishments. Nevertheless, Musk’s comments seemed to spur Lowe to cultivate a more prominent public profile, marked by a shift towards more right-wing stances, positioning himself as distinct from Farage.
The most notable example of Lowe breaking from Farage happened with regards to Tommy Robinson, a far-right extremist who was jailed for contempt of court in October 2024. Farage publicly stated that Robinson has no place in Reform UK. Lowe demonstrated more sympathy for Robinson, saying that while he wasn’t right for Reform, Robinson should be credited for his contributions to British politics. Additionally, Lowe has moved to the right of Farage on immigration. Farage has been reluctant to commit to the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, calling it politically impossible, whereas Lowe has continually voiced his support for mass deportation.
The tension between Lowe and Farage escalated three weeks ago when Lowe told the Daily Mail that he is not confident Farage has what it takes to deliver on his promises. On March 7, 2025, the day after Lowe’s statement, Reform Chairman Zia Yusuf and Chief Whip Lee Anderson issued a joint statement claiming they had received two harassment complaints from female employees against Lowe. The statement went on to say that an independent King’s Counsel had been appointed to investigate the claims and that Lowe had been uncooperative.
Since the release of this statement, two narratives have emerged—one from Lowe and one from Farage. Lowe claims the timeline of the investigation is evidence that he is the victim of a political assassination attempt. On X, Lowe wrote, “I will not have my name dragged through the mud as part of a political assassination because I dared to question Nigel Farage.” Lowe continued, asserting that there is no credible evidence against him. For his part, Farage has defended his actions as the leader of Reform UK, stating, “As a responsible political party, Reform UK has a duty to care for every member of its staff.” The accusations against Lowe have not yet been substantiated, but regardless of their validity, they present a problem for Reform UK. If the claims are valid, the party will have to expel one of its core members. If the claims are false, two party leaders publicly denigrated a third.
The way Reform UK navigates this crisis will not only determine the party’s immediate future but could also reshape the political landscape in Britain, challenging the dominance of the traditional parties in ways that could echo far beyond the next election. The party’s ability to reconcile its ideological differences and handle its internal conflicts will be key to its survival. If Reform UK can manage to unite its fractured base and expand its appeal beyond the hard-right, it may become a permanent fixture in British politics. However, if it remains divided and embroiled in scandal, its rise could prove to be short-lived, with its legacy defined by missed opportunities rather than political success.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: “Reform won five seats in the 650-seat UK parliament in July” | Image sourced from EPA Images | CC License, no changes made