By August of last year, Myanmar’s ruling military Junta, the Tatmadaw, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Since seizing power from the nation’s democratically elected government in 2021, the Tatmadaw, under the iron-fisted rule of Min Aung Hlaing, has faced numerous defeats at the hands of the pro-democracy National Unity Government (NUG) and its allies in the nation’s civil war. By August of last year, it allegedly controlled less than a third of the nation’s towns. However, the still-fragile Tatmadaw has since made a surprising comeback, even recapturing the strategic town of Kyaukme in October 2025. Coincidentally, the Tatmadaw has started receiving an abundance of military and diplomatic support from a likely ally: China.
In the early years of the war, China sought a balanced approach to the various sides of this highly unpredictable conflict. Despite tacitly supporting the Tatmadaw, Beijing has also maintained ties with various rebel groups. This is perhaps best displayed by China’s implicit support for Operation 1027, a widely successful rebel offensive by the anti-Junta Three Brotherhood Alliance. And yet, possibly fearing the establishment of a pro-American democracy by the NUG and viewing Min Aung Hlaing’s government as more stable than it initially appeared, China has now more heavily thrown its support behind Myanmar’s ruling military Junta.
Despite increased Chinese support, the Tatmadaw continues to face strong opposition from the NUG and other rebel groups, with many believing it is still likely to lose the civil war. And yet, the United States, hyper-focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, not to mention its escalating tensions with Venezuela, has failed to provide any form of military aid to the NUG or its allies, nor has it put any meaningful pressure on the ruling military Junta. In maintaining this stance of neutrality and non-intervention, the United States is missing out on a golden opportunity to help establish a pro-US democracy on the border of what is perhaps its greatest rival, while helping to eliminate a brutal dictatorship in the process.
So why hasn’t the United States provided military aid to the NUG? There are several explanations.
Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the conflict in Myanmar does not involve or potentially threaten key US allies like NATO and Israel. In a world where these two wars have taken center stage, Western media outlets often describe the Myanmar Civil War as “forgotten.” As such, many Americans view Myanmar as a far-off corner of the world that the United States has no obligation, nor reason, to protect, especially considering increasing economic problems within the US, the tens of billions already given to support Ukraine and Israel over the past three years, and the much closer threat of Venezuela. Many also argue that providing military aid to the NUG would antagonize China, as Beijing would likely see US military support as little more than a hostile act of Western interference in East Asian affairs.
Despite these reservations, the benefits the United States would reap from providing military aid to Myanmar are enormous. With US support, the NUG would be well-positioned to topple Min Aung Hlaing’s oppressive regime and restore democracy. This would not just be a victory for democracy over authoritarianism, but with enough support, it could bring about a pro-American federal state strategically positioned to counter China’s rising influence and military reach. A democratic, pro-US government in Myanmar would undermine China’s influence and hegemony in East and Southeast Asia. Moreover, Myanmar’s position along the Andaman Sea would give the US greater ability to blockade the Malacca Strait, a vital waterway which China relies on to import critical materials like oil. The threat of a blockade could severely restrict China’s ability to pursue military aggression in the region. This could help deter a Chinese invasion of democratic Taiwan, or at the very least provide a military advantage for the United States should a horrific war break out between these two powers.
Of course, a new democratic government in Myanmar would not necessarily be fully pro-American and anti-Chinese. Still, it is vital to consider both the Tatmadaw’s great unpopularity in Myanmar and, more recently, the historic surge in anti-China sentiment among the Burmese populace as a result of Chinese support for the Junta. While it would be naive to assume that a democratic Myanmar would naturally become a close US ally simply because both countries are democratic, it makes sense that extensive US military support in toppling an unpopular, oppressive regime would win some gratitude and loyalty from the NUG and the general populace. Moreover, should the NUG and its allies succeed in reestablishing a democratic state despite Chinese military aid to the Tatmadaw, this new government would naturally have a negative disposition towards China and would likely seek support from a more powerful nation to counter the hostile influence of Beijing. A democratic US, having just provided extensive military support to the new government, would be a natural choice for establishing military pacts and improving ties. Alternatively, should the NUG emerge victorious even without US support, the new government would likely emerge from the conflict with no favorable disposition towards the United States. Such a government may even be wary of American influence and choose instead to deepen ties with another democratic nation, such as nearby India.
The many atrocities committed by the Tatmadaw since 2021 provide a compelling moral argument for the United States to support Myanmar’s pro-democracy rebel groups. In addition to the brutal suppression of civil liberties, the Tatmadaw is guilty of numerous human rights violations conducted with appalling cruelty. Since 2021, the military Junta has conducted countless massacres against its own people, often using lethal machine guns, explosive weapons, and, more recently, motorized paragliders. Earlier this month, the Tatmadaw used such devices to slaughter more than two dozen civilians at a religious festival in Sagaing, adding to an already extensive list of atrocities. Aerial bombardment campaigns like this one, far from unusual in present-day Myanmar, were known to have displaced roughly 3 million people by 2024.
Min Aung Hlaing’s Tatmadaw also engages in brutal war crimes against rebel forces and vicious terror campaigns against Myanmar’s populace. These atrocities include torturing, mutilating, beheading, and even burning captured rebel soldiers alive, many of whom were in their teens or early twenties. The Tatmadaw has gone as far as forcing local villagers to watch these gruesome executions as part of a twisted fear tactic, and has reportedly started using chemical weapons on their own people. Such atrocities have been widespread throughout this war, and appear more horrific than even the better-known atrocities committed by Russia and Israel thousands of miles away. As such, the United States ought to take a much stronger stance against Min Aung Hlaing’s brutal regime, not just to advance its own strategic interests, but also to put an end to the Junta’s unparalleled atrocities and support both life and liberty for the Burmese people.
American foreign policy regarding the conflict in Myanmar has thus far failed to live up to the ideals the nation professes to hold so dearly. While the Biden-era BURMA Act of 2022 provided humanitarian aid to many rebel groups and sanctioned an array of Tatmadaw-linked organizations, this legislation failed to deliver the military support the NUG actually needs to bring lasting change and establish a pro-US democracy. Moreover, the recent dropping of US sanctions on critical Tatmadaw allies by the Trump administration serves only to bolster Min Aung Hlaing’s China-backed regime while betraying core American Interests and values.
Such policies run contrary to America’s strategic interests in both Southeast Asia and the wider world, and allow for the continued existence of a brutal dictatorship guilty of numerous atrocities. By providing moderate military aid to the NUG and some of its allies, the United States could help establish a pro-American democratic state in Myanmar, advancing US foreign policy goals while providing freedom and humanity to the long-ravaged Burmese populace.
For nearly half a decade, the Burmese jungles have burned under the heel of authoritarianism. With American support and military aid, the NUG can restore democracy, and freedom may yet return to the “Golden Land.”
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Mandalay People’s Defense Force Female Commander and Recruits during Training, Image sourced from Wikimedia Commons | CC License, Cropped