This essay won 3rd place in the 2024 YRIS High School Essay Contest for its response to the following prompt: “Evaluate an example of a foreign policy, historical or contemporary, that can be considered a success.”
“The wars of the next century will be fought over water.”
These words by Ismail Serageldin, former Vice President of the World Bank, were spoken in
1995 in response to the growing water scarcity issues faced all over the world (Boccaletti). His
words are even more relevant today as conflicts brew all over the world from Eastern Europe to
South America, over shared waterways. The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 to
allocate the shared Indus River System between India and Pakistan, is a rare example of
international diplomacy that has lasted over the past six decades in spite of strained geopolitical
relations between the two countries.
In 1947, marking the end of British rule in the Indian subcontinent, British India was partitioned
into two independent countries – India and Pakistan (Bauer). Initially, the two newly-formed
nations faced significant turmoil most notably over the usage of the Indus River system. This
shared waterway flows through India into Pakistan, traversing Kashmir and the Punjab plain,
before emptying into the Arabian sea in Pakistan (Bauer) and is vital for agriculture, electricity
and more (Boccaletti). Due to ongoing conflicts following the partition, India began withholding
water from Pakistan in 1948, further escalating the existing animosity between the nations. This
triggered international intervention, most notably from The World Bank and led by its former
President Eugene Black. Six years later, on September 19, 1960, the Indus Water Treaty was
signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Mohammad Ayub
Khan, marking the end of almost a decade of a protracted and bitter dispute (Bauer). The Treaty meticulously divided the rivers of the Indus Water system allotting the water from the Eastern
Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, and the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan
(Bauer). The “Permanent Indus Commission” was also created to ensure cooperation and handle
any potential disputes (The World Bank). After a 10-year Transition Period, between April 1,
1960 and May 31, 1970, the Indus Water Treaty was successfully integrated, providing both
countries with an ample supply of water and stability.
The IWT was a resounding success surviving three wars and over 60 years of hostile relations
between India and Pakistan (Sultan). Its triumph depended upon the simplicity of the treaty,
detailed legal provisions included incase of any future conflicts, and the presence of a neutral
mediator to handle any disputes. For instance, compare it with the 1944 US-Mexico Water treaty
intended to allocate water from the Rio Grande to southern states in the US and Mexico. This
treaty eventually failed due to the “extremely complex system of water rights” outlined in the
agreement creating lengthy and complicated policies that could not be sustained (Felbab-Brown).
By comparison, the straightforwardness of the IWT sets it up for success. Similarly, the IWT
includes detailed provisions and checks and balances to ensure that every issue is equitably and
fairly resolved. For example, the Permanent Indus Commission, overseeing the adherence to the
provisions of the treaty, is composed of a Commissioner from each country to address any
questions, a neutral expert to handle differences, and an “ad hoc arbitral tribunal” to handle any
disputes (The World Bank). This clear delineation of roles ensures fairness and that there are no
biased decisions. Furthermore, the treaty was mediated by the World Bank – an external, neutral
party. As India and Pakistan have had a history of war and distrust, this was crucial in facilitating
effective arbitration and resolution (Sultan). In spite of recent turmoil following the 2016 Uri attack where terrorists from Pakistan killed 19 Indian soldiers, and disagreements over India
building new hydroelectric dams such as Kishenganga and Ratle (The World Bank), the IWT’s
framing and thoughtful dispute resolution process have contributed to its sustained success.
While the IWT is a great accomplishment, it is time for it to evolve. Currently, it faces severe
limitations due to climate change. Due to increasing global temperatures, current projections
indicate that “the Indus River Basin will face a water deficit of 50 percent” by 2030 (Mathur).
With certain rivers drying up, this could potentially skew the proportion of water dedicated to
each country. Climate change is also expected to disrupt agriculture, trigger energy shortages,
and lead to unpredictable hydrological cycles such as erratic flooding and drought. In 2022,
Pakistan experienced devastating floods across a third of the country and extensive landslides in
the Indus River Basin leaving more than “30 million people homeless and result[ing] in 1000
deaths” (Hong et al.). To address these known and unknown challenges, the IWT should be made
future climate change proof through new ideas such as the “quantification and trading of river
resources” (Mathur) moving from a volumetric view of the water sharing to a more
relationship-based assessment of the benefits of using water. One suggestion could be an annual
trading window to renegotiate the water sharing percentage which can be offset in future years –
similar to a loss and share gain in the stock market to smooth out fluctuations.
From the Kakhovka Reservoir conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the partition of the Nile in
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and the dams built on the Mekong Basin in China, water wars
threaten the livelihood and sanctity of our world (Boccaletti). The IWT is a rare example of how
international mediation and clarity are crucial in constructing a long lasting agreement between two countries with strained relations (Sultan). The treaty improved the lives of roughly “300
million people” (Mathur) who use the waters from the basin and set a precedent of facilitating
cooperation to enforce change. It can be made future proof and taken from good to great by
adding provisions to address climate change keeping it a paragon of global excellence in foreign
policy.
References
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: Indus River in Ladakh, India – near Alchi bridge, taken on May 11, 2018, Photo by Bernard Gagnon | Image sourced from Wikimedia Commons | CC License, no changes made
- Bauer, Patricia. “Indus Waters Treaty | History, Provisions, & Facts.” Encyclopædia Britannica,
20 Mar. 2024, www.britannica.com/event/Indus-Waters-Treaty. Accessed 12 June 2024. - Boccaletti, Giulio. “The Water Wars Myth.” OpenMind Magazine, 9 June 2022,
www.openmindmag.org/articles/the-water-wars-myth. Accessed 12 June 2024. - Felbab-Brown, Vanda. “Not Dried Up: US-Mexico Water Cooperation.” Brookings, 26 Oct.
2020, www.brookings.edu/articles/not-dried-up-us-mexico-water-cooperation/. Accessed 12 June 2024. - Hong, Chi-Cherng, et al. “Causes of 2022 Pakistan Flooding and Its Linkage with China and Europe Heatwaves.” Nature News, Nature Publishing Group, 14 Oct. 2023, www.nature.com/articles/s41612023004922#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20Pakistan%20experienced%20a,one%2Dthird%20of%20the%20country.
- Mathur, Smiti. “Climate-Proofing the Indus Water Treaty | New Perspectives on Asia | CSIS.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 23 Oct. 2023, www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/climateproofinginduswatertreaty#:~:text=Effects%20of%20Climate%20Change&text=Projections%20indicate%20that%2C%20due%20to. Accessed 12 June 2024.
- Sultan, Saud. “The Indus Waters Treaty: An Exemplar of Cooperation.” South Asia@LSE, 25 June 2018, blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2018/06/25/the-indus-waters-treaty-an-exemplar-of-cooperation/. Accessed 12 June 2024.
- The World Bank. “Fact Sheet: The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 and the Role of the World Bank.” World Bank, 11 June 2018, www.worldbank.org/en/region/sar/brief/fact-sheet-the-indus-waters-treaty-1960-and-the-world-bank. Accessed 12 June 2024.