Part 2 : Russia’s Geopolitical Reckoning in the Middle East
Russia’s historical engagement in the Middle East is entrenched in religious, cultural, and geopolitical considerations. From its protracted wars against the Ottoman Empire to the Soviet Union’s extensive Cold War-era involvement in the Arab world, Russia has consistently sought to shape the region’s security and economic landscape, seeking the warm water ports of the Mediterranean. In recent years, President Vladimir Putin has reinvigorated Russia’s presence in the Middle East, leveraging arms sales, energy cooperation, and military interventions to counterbalance Western influence. However, the war in Ukraine, the economic fallout from Western sanctions, and shifting regional dynamics have weakened its standing. This analysis examines Russia’s evolving role by assessing its trade and investments, arms exports, military deployment, and diplomatic activity in the Middle East.
Russia has positioned itself as a key player in the region, with a long-standing presence in Tartous, Syria. Its influence increased during the Nasser era and continued until after the Six-Day War in 1967, marking a significant period of Russian military involvement in the region. Over the past decade, Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria, which decisively bolstered the Assad regime against opposition forces during the civil war, was a defining moment, securing Moscow’s foothold in the Levant. Beyond Syria, Russia expanded its economic and strategic ties with Iran—primarily through arms sales and sanctions evasion—while fostering energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia and economic interdependence with Turkey through trade. Its ability to navigate relationships with opposing factions—such as Iran and Israel or Saudi Arabia and Qatar—exemplified its diplomatic flexibility that allowed Russia to maintain a balancing act that allowed it to exert influence while avoiding direct confrontation. One of Russia’s most significant regional engagements has been through OPEC+, the group of oil-producing countries, where its partnership with Saudi Arabia played a pivotal role in global energy markets. Energy cooperation allowed Russia to circumvent sanctions, while growing arms sales bolstered its defense industry. Meanwhile, the Wagner Group’s (state-funded, paramilitary organization) operations in North Africa extended Moscow’s influence through proxy engagements, reinforcing its military reach. In Lebanon, when the major powers appointed consuls to “protect” various sects, Russia’s consul took on the responsibility of protecting the Greek Orthodox community.
Yet, unlike the Soviet Union, Russia never sought outright hegemony in the Middle East; instead, it pursued pragmatic engagement aimed at counterbalancing U.S. dominance while safeguarding economic and military interests. This strategy proved effective until the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a cascade of destabilizing consequences that undermined Russia’s regional stature.
The war in Ukraine has drained Russia’s military and economic resources, diverting attention from its Middle Eastern ambitions. Western sanctions have curtailed- although not to the extent Europe had hoped- Russia’s ability to sustain arms exports, diminishing its economic leverage. Russia’s capacity to fulfill defense contracts with Egypt, Algeria, and Iran has been constrained, forcing these states to explore alternative suppliers, including China and Western nations, with this erosion of Russia’s reputation as a reliable arms supplier further weakening its strategic influence.
Historically, energy and defense contracts have served as the backbone of Russia’s engagement in the Middle East. While OPEC+ remains a crucial forum for Saudi-Russian cooperation, the balance of power within the alliance has shifted. Saudi Arabia, increasingly aligned with the U.S. on security matters, has assumed a more assertive role, diminishing Russia’s ability to shape global oil prices. Moreover, BRICS has re-emerged as a geopolitical force, with Russia leveraging its expansion to position the bloc as a counterweight to Western influence, shaping BRICS into a more anti-Western coalition, integrating authoritarian states and capitalizing on U.S. policy missteps. However, internal divergences within BRICS, especially between China, India, and Saudi Arabia, complicate its cohesion.
Widespread international condemnation of Russia’s Ukraine invasion has led to a breakdown in diplomatic relations with the West. The sanctions that have been imposed in response have also forced Russia to deepen economic ties with Iran, which has supplied drones and military aid for the Ukrainian war effort. However, this partnership is constrained by Iran’s own economic fragility. This dependence on Iranian drones and munitions marks a stark reversal of traditional roles—Russia, once a dominant arms supplier, now finds itself reliant on Iran for military supplies. Meanwhile, the UAE and Turkey have facilitated Russian financial transactions to circumvent sanctions, yet the long-term viability of these arrangements remains uncertain, as Gulf states remain cautious about fully aligning with an internationally isolated Russia.
Despite the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, Russia has maintained a military presence in Syria, leveraging its bases in Tartus and Hmeimim to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean. This was achieved through agreements with Syria’s new government, which, facing economic hardship and regional isolation, sought security guarantees, economic aid, and leverage in negotiations for sanctions relief. By allowing Russia to retain its military infrastructure while distancing itself from Iran, the new leadership aimed to balance foreign influence and prevent overreliance on any single power. Russia has further entrenched itself within Syria’s defense establishment by overseeing military restructuring, integrating Russian-trained officers, and counteracting Turkish influence. However, with the redeployment of Russian forces to Ukraine, its ability to conduct large-scale military operations in the Middle East has waned.
Simultaneously, Israel has become increasingly assertive in Syria, invading it and conducting frequent airstrikes on Iranian and Russian-linked targets. Russia, once a critical mediator between Israel and Iran, now finds itself increasingly sidelined. Its efforts to balance support for Palestine while maintaining cooperative ties with Israel—partially to deter Israeli arms supplies to Ukraine—have further complicated its regional standing. As Iran expands its footprint in Syria, Russia’s influence continues to weaken.
While Russia’s relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain intact, they have become increasingly transactional. Gulf states, once skeptical of U.S. commitments, are now deepening their defense ties with it, diminishing their reliance on Russia. Even Turkey, a crucial intermediary for Russia, has strategically balanced its engagements with both the West and Russia, avoiding full alignment with the Kremlin.
Russia’s mercenary presence, primarily through the Wagner Group, has been destabilized following the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. This has revealed Russia’s weakening control over its forces in Libya and Sudan, leading the UAE and Gulf states to recalibrate their engagements with Russia. Taking advantage of North African dissatisfaction with Western policies, Russia has sought to expand its influence, particularly through arms sales and energy deals. Algeria, a key partner, has deepened military cooperation with Russia, including arms sales and joint defense exercises, while balancing these ties with its broader foreign policy goals. Although neutral in global conflicts, Algeria seeks to maintain economic relations with the EU and a strategic partnership with the U.S. for counterterrorism and regional stability. Meanwhile, in Libya, Russia supports General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) through military aid and political backing to secure oil and strategic ports, contrasting the U.S.’s diplomatic approach in supporting the Government of National Unity. Although Russia has made inroads with these nations, its efforts are constrained by regional rivalries and competition from other powers. Russia’s drained resources have weakened its position in the Maghreb, leaving space for other global players like China.
Russia’s trajectory in the Middle East over the past decade reflects an initial phase of strategic expansion followed by a period of decline precipitated by the war in Ukraine and regional conflicts. While Russia successfully entrenched itself through military interventions, energy partnerships, and arms sales, the geopolitical and economic ramifications of its invasion of Ukraine have severely constrained its regional influence. Sanctions, declining military capabilities, and shifting alliances have left Russia increasingly marginalized. Although it retains a presence in Syria and maintains economic partnerships with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, its role in the region is increasingly defined by limitations rather than ambitions. We are likely to witness a determined Russian effort to reclaim some of the influence it has lost over time, refusing to accept a diminished role in the region. This drive to reassert itself will likely contribute to the ongoing instability, as Russia’s actions in seeking to regain its influence may exacerbate existing tensions and complexities in the region.
Featured/Headline Image Caption and Citation: “Planes Releasing Russian Flag Colours Over the Red Square in Moscow, Russia,” Image source from Pexels | CC License, no changes made