***CONTENT WARNING: This Article Discusses Sexual Assault and Rape***

In a surprise announcement this past Thursday, the Ethiopian government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—who came to power in Ethiopia in 2018 after almost three decades of rule by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—declared a “humanitarian truce” to allow aid into the war-torn Tigray region in Northern Ethiopia[1]. The government has also called on the Tigrayan rebels to “desist from all acts of further aggression and withdraw from areas they have occupied in neighboring regions” [2]. The Tigrayan forces agreed that they would agree to ending the hostilities immediately if humanitarian aid arrived in the region “within a reasonable timeframe” [3]. This cease-fire agreement follows almost 17 months of conflict between the TPLF and forces led by Ahmed’s national government. The conflict broke out in early November of 2020 after existing political and ethnic tensions between the TPLF and Ahmed’s central government in Addis Ababa escalated into military confrontation when government forces moved into the Tigray region after accusing the TPLF of raiding government garrisons and taking prisoners. 

The conflict has, according to the U.N., has led to the displacement of over 400,00 people within the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia—tens of thousands of whom have fled to Sudan, fueling a refugee crisis in the neighboring country—as well as a dire humanitarian situation for residents who have remained in Tigray and surrounding regions[4]. Some 400,000 people have been plunged into famine due to the conflict, and almost 2 million more are on the brink of famine-like conditions and in critical need of food and aid according to Reuters[5]. The Ethiopian government has been accused of creating a “de facto blockade” of the Tigray region that has prevented humanitarian aid from entering the region since December 2021[6], but the government has placed the blame on the Tigrayan rebels and asserted that they are responsible for blocking the access to aid in the region, not government forces[7]. 

Both the TPLF and the Ethiopian government—which is aided by Eritrean soldiers and militia forces from the Amhara region West of Tigray—have been accused of human rights abuses that “may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity”[8] that include but are not limited to extrajudicial executions, torture, rape, and attacking of refugees and/or civilians[9]. While all sides have participated in human rights abuses, the Eritrean forces have been the most egregious violators of human rights. as they hold a grudge against the TPLF for the bloody border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia from 1998-2000 when the TPLF were in power in Ethiopia[10]. The Eritrean government, led by president Isaias Afwerki, views the TPLF as “an existential threat” to Eritrea[11]. Eritrean soldiers have been accused of attempting to eliminate Tigrayans, and there are documented cases of Eritrean soldiers slaughtering hundreds of unarmed civilians in a “massacre[s] that may amount to…crime[s] against humanity” [12]. The Tigrayan rebels are not free of guilt, however. Forces from Tigray and Amhara, neighboring regions in Ethiopia home to different ethnic groups, have been accused of revenge killing civilians and possibly ethnic cleansing during the war as the Amhara region and areas in Tigray have swapped hands between Tigrayan forces and Amhara militias during the war[13]. The University of Ghent has estimated that the war has led to at least 10,000 deaths with at least 230 massacres[14].

Some of the most concerning human rights violations during the war have been the rampant sexual violence from all sides of the conflict. U.N. Aid Chief Mark Lowcock informed the U.N. Security Council that “there is no doubt that sexual violence is being used in this conflict as a weapon of war,”[15] and Amnesty International reported that rape is being used as “a weapon of war to inflict lasting and psychological damage” [16]. Ethiopian and Eritrean troops have been accused of targeting women and young girls in Tigray, and the TPLF has also been accused of mass sexual assault and rape in Amhara. Thousands of women and young girls have reported sexual abuse at the hands of fighting forces with 2,200 cases of sexual assault or rape in Tigray and 940 cases in Amhara reported in the first 8 months of the war [17]. A group of experts from the U.N.’s Human Rights Council believes the existing estimates are “an underestimation of the true extent”[18] of the widespread use of sexual violence, and a BBC interview with an unidentified woman in Tigray corroborates this theory as the woman stated that she knows of many women and girls who were sexual assaulted and did not come forward[19].

Ethiopia is the second-most-populated country in Africa, and it is critical for stability in the Horn of Africa, so the international community is watching the conflict unfolding in Ethiopia with interest in its peaceful conclusion. The biggest fear that the international community holds is that the ethnic lines Ethiopia was divided along during the TPLF rule would cause the country to fracture along ethnic identities and destabilize the entire region. Last June, those fears were almost realized with Tigrayan rebels only 200 kilometers from the capital. Although the rebels were eventually repulsed by government forces, Tigrayan rebels have allied themselves with other ethnically based rebel groups combating the federal government, and there has been an alarming rise in social media posts advocating for ethnic violence and an adjacent proliferation of hate speech[20].

Western countries and the U.N. are supportive but also skeptical of the truce, and hope that the truce can be a stepping-stone toward eventual peace between the two parties. The Ethiopian government originally rejected calls for peace-talks from Western countries, the U.N. and the African Union because it saw its operation in Tigray as a “law-enforcement operation” that was expected to last only a few weeks, but the comparable military power of both parties in the conflict has led to protraction of the conflict[21]. There had been one ceasefire earlier in the conflict in June 2021 when the Tigrayan rebels retook the Tigray regional capital of Mekelle from government forces, but fighting quickly resumed in July 2021[22]. Despite the success, or lack thereof, of the first ceasefire, the United Nations hopes that the most recent  truce will “translate into an effective cessation of hostilities, respected by all parties in this conflict, to allow for effective humanitarian access for all who need it” [23]. But whether this ceasefire can transform into large peace negotiations to end the bloody conflict remains to be seen.

Works Cited:

1. Dahir, Abdi Latif, and Simon Marks. “Ethiopia Declares ‘Humanitarian Truce’ in War-Ravaged Tigray Region.” The New York Times, March 24, 2022, sec. World. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-conflict-truce.html
2. Ibid
3. Ibid
4. BBC. “Ethiopia’s Tigray War: The Short, Medium and Long Story.” BBC News, June 29, 2021, sec. Africa. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54964378.
5.  Matthew Green. “Civil War Has Pushed Ethiopia to the Brink”
6. Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia Declares Unilateral Truce to Allow Aid into Tigray,” March 24, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/ethiopia-declares-truce-to-allow-aid-into-tigray  Abdi Latif Dahir and Simon Marks. “Ethiopia Declares ‘Humanitarian Truce’”
7. Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia Declares Unilateral Truce to Allow Aid into Tigray,”
8. Green, Matthew. “Civil War Has Pushed Ethiopia to the Brink. Its Future Is at Stake.” Reuters. Accessed April 1, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ethiopia-conflict-fractured/
9. Scott Neuman and Eyder Peralta. “Rebels Are Closing in on Ethiopia’s Capital”
10. Ibid
11. Ibid
12. Scott Neuman and Eyder Peralta. “Rebels Are Closing in on Ethiopia’s Capital”
13. Matthew Green. “Civil War Has Pushed Ethiopia to the Brink”
14.  BBC. “Ethiopia’s Tigray War”
15. Matthew Green. “Civil War Has Pushed Ethiopia to the Brink”
16. BBC News. “Ethiopia’s Civil War: The Women Who Paid the Price,” March 26, 2022, sec. Africa. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60648163.
17. Ibid
18. Ibid
19. Ibid
20. Scott Neuman and Eyder Peralta. “Rebels Are Closing in on Ethiopia’s Capital” Matthew Green. “Civil War Has Pushed Ethiopia to the Brink”
21. Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Promises ‘Final’ Offensive in Tigray,” November 17, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/17/ethiopias-pm-abiy-vows-final-offensive-into-tigray.
22. Scott Neuman and Eyder Peralta. “Rebels Are Closing in on Ethiopia’s Capital” Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia Declares Unilateral Truce to Allow Aid into Tigray,” 
23. Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia: Tigrayan Fighters Agree to ‘Cessation of Hostilities,’” March 25, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/ethiopia-tigrayan-fighters-agree-to-cessation-of-hostilities. 

Escalating violence between the national army and those loyal to the northern Tigray region has brought the threat of civil war to Ethiopia and instability to the whole Horn of Africa.

The recent violence is the culmination of a history marked by rising tensions. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was a coalition made up of different ethnically based political parties, namely Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).¹

Under this ruling coalition, TPLF became the dominant party in 1991 and controlled the Ethiopian government for almost three decades, ushering in “stultifying, iron-fisted rule.”² However, this control came to an end when Abiy Ahmed was elected as a “young reformer” in 2018.³ Ahmed, the first Oromo Prime Minister, removed many TPLF members from their positions in the central government.⁴ Seeing its influence wane, the TPLF turned their attention and influence to the Tigray region, where they have since been operating.

Then, in September 2020, Tigray held regional elections in defiance of the federal government, which had canceled elections due to the pandemic.⁵ The national government called the Tigray election “illegal.”⁶ 

The TPLF, which lacks the power it once had in Ethiopian politics, has made veiled threats of succession.⁷ Relations further soured when, in early October, the upper house of parliament voted to suspend budget aid to Tigray.

The situation between the regional state and the federal government erupted on Nov. 4, when Ahmed sent troops into Tigray, claiming the TPLF had attacked a federal military installation in the Tigray region.⁸ Both sides readied for conflict. 

It came quickly and violently: since the fighting began on Nov. 4, hundreds of people have reportedly been killed on both sides and thousands have fled into neighboring Sudan.⁹ On Nov. 13, Tigray launched rockets at airports in Amhara Province.¹⁰ Then, in a major escalation, Tigray fired a rocket at neighboring Eritrea on Nov. 14. No casualties or damage have been reported.¹¹ 

Debretsion Gebremichael, Tigray’s president, said he ordered this attack because Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, had sided with Ahmed’s government.¹²

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending the 20-year border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, denied that Eritrea has aided his government during the conflict with Tigray.¹³ Gebremichael, on the other hand, said Eritrean forces have crossed into Ethiopia at three border towns in the northern region.¹⁴

“As long as troops are here fighting, we will take any legitimate military target and we will fire,” Gebremichael told the Associated Press.¹⁵

This move brings Eritrea into the conflict, threatening the stability in the Horn of Africa. The Tigray region in particular is essential to peace at the Ethipian-Eritrean border, since the government in Tigray administers the area.¹⁶ The United States condemned the TPLF’s “unjustifiable attacks against Eritrea…  and its efforts to internationalize the conflict in Tigray.”¹⁷

Not only has the conflict threatened international peace, it has also exacerbated ethnic divisions in Ethiopia to such an extent that there is threat of civil war. Ethiopia contains 10 regions, and these ethnic strongholds have historically vied for power.¹⁸ 

When Ahmed came to power, he promised to heal a deeply divided country. His approach was to build a unitary style government, and in 2019, he merged together the multi-ethnic parties of the EPRDF and created the Prosperity Party (PP).¹⁹ The TPLF did not participate in this merger, claiming it would divide the country.²⁰ 

However, Ahmed’s unitary approach did not always go far enough to satisfy the demands of ethno-nationalist movements such as the “Oromo struggle for greater autonomy and recognition.”²¹ Indeed, since Ahmend took power, Ethiopia has seen a rise in ethnic divisions, including massive displacements along ethnic lines and an increased call for self-governance from ethnic communities.²² In the past year, there have been a string of violent altercations between rival ethnic groups like the Oromo, Amhara, Tigray and Somali.²³ 

Among this political climate of regional disputes, Tigray is emblematic of a larger movement that seeks greater autonomy for Ethiopia’s regions.²⁴ Thus, this conflict will be essential in answering the question of whether Ethiopia can continue to coexist as a multi-ethnic nation.

“Everyone saw this coming,” said Kjetil Tronvoll, a scholar of Ethiopian politics.²⁵ “Both sides felt insecure and started to mobilize troops. It was a clear signal of a civil war in the making.”

Despite the repercussions of the Tigray conflict, which some are worried may include ethnic cleansing and even genocide, Ahmed has ignored international calls for de-escalation.²⁶ Instead, the violence has only increased, leading the United Nations to warn of a looming humanitarian disaster.²⁷ 

With phone and internet lines cut off, communication with the Tigray region is limited.²⁸ However, the harshest fighting has been in western Tigray. Already, some 25,000 Ethiopian refugees have fled into Sudan. This number is expected to balloon, with Sudan preparing for up to 200,000 refugees. 

Both sides have been accused of war crimes. Amnesty International said it confirmed the massacre of dozens of villagers, many of them in Amhara, possibly by pro-Tigray militiamen.²⁹

Ahmed predicts the war will be over soon, but few experts agree.³⁰ The TPLF has elusive leaders and a large military force — 250,000 armed men, by some estimates. As such, this conflict could drag on, spilling into neighboring countries and displacing thousands of people during a global pandemic.³¹ 

Works Cited

1. Gebremedhin, Desta. “Tigray Crisis: Why There Are Fears of Civil War in Ethiopia.” BBC News. BBC, November 13, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54826875?utm_source=YIRA+Subscribers+%28last+updated+Sept+2018%29. 
2. Walsh, Declan, and Simon Marks. “They Once Ruled Ethiopia. Now They Are Fighting Its Government.” The New York Times. The New York Times, November 15, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/world/africa/ethiopia-abiy-tigray.html. 
3. Tesfaye, Beza. “The Violence in Ethiopia.” Africa Is a Country, September 14, 2020. https://africasacountry.com/2020/09/the-violence-in-ethiopia. 
4. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”
5. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
6. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”
7. Ibid.
8. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
9. Wroughton, Lesley. “Rebel Tigrayans Fire Rockets at Neighboring Eritrea in Escalation of Ethiopia Conflict.” The Washington Post. WP Company, November 15, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rebel-tigrayans-fire-rockets-at-neighboring-eritrea-in-escalation-of-ethiopia-conflict/2020/11/15/651855c4-273b-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html
10. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
11. Wroughton, “Rebel Tigrayans”
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Reuters, and Eoin McSweeney. “Forces from Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Bombed Eritrean Capital, Tigray Leader Says.” CNN. Cable News Network, November 15, 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/15/africa/eritrea-tigray-bombing-intl/index.html.
15. Wroughton, “Rebel Tigrayans”
16. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”
17. Wroughton, “Rebel Tigrayans”
18. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
19. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”
20. Sileshi, Ephream. “Exclusive: Third Day EPRDF EC Discussing ‘Prosperity Party’ Regulation. Find the Draft Copy Obtained by AS.” Addis Standard, November 18, 2019. https://addisstandard.com/exclusive-third-day-eprdf-ec-discussing-prosperity-party-regulation-find-the-draft-copy-obtained-by-as/. 
21. Tesfaye, “The Violence in Ethiopia”
22. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”
23. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27.  Anna, Cara. “Ethiopia’s Tigray Leader Confirms Firing Missiles at Eritrea.” AP NEWS. Associated Press, November 15, 2020. https://apnews.com/article/international-news-eritrea-ethiopia-asmara-kenya-33b9aea59b4c984562eaa86d8547c6dd. 
28. Walsh, “They Once Ruled Ethiopia”
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid.
31. Gebremedhin, “Tigray Crisis.”